How Trade Tariffs Hurt The Economy

Since I'm not smart enough to explain how trade tariffs work (or even spell tarrifs), I'll just shameless quote Christopher Hancock from The Penny Sleuth.

We believe trading partners are better off specializing in the good in which they are the low-opportunity cost producer. We believe restrictions on trade decrease the wealth of our country.

We believe tariffs benefit the select few at the expense of the entire economy and its citizens.

Think of it this way…simple example…China produces widgets for Wal-Mart at $20 a widget. American producers can’t do the job for less than $25. So American widget makers may lose their jobs. They plead to Washington, and Washington comes to the rescue. Congress slaps a $10 tariff (tax) on all Chinese imports. Wal-Mart now turns to the American widget producer.

But the retail giant must now pay $25 for each widget they stock. Consequently, they raise the shelf-price for widgets by 25%. Unfortunately, many American consumers simply can’t afford the price increase. Wal-Mart sales drop. The company is forced to cut costs. They lay off 10% of their work force.

The point: The number of jobs protected by import restrictions will be offset by jobs lost in other industries. And to top that, widgets are now more expensive for everyone in the American economy.

It gets better: In response, China decides to slap tariffs on American exports. Now American semiconductor makers can’t sell their products to Chinese computer makers. Sales drop. More jobs are lost.

And here’s where it gets worse: China cleverly cedes to America’s demands. The yuan appreciates 40%. Now every good we consume sporting the “made in China” labels gets noticeably more expensive. And just try buying something that’s not made in China.

Furthermore, China no longer has to keep the yuan from appreciating relative to the dollar. Meaning, China’s dollar demand drops. The fundamental need to buy U.S. Treasuries no longer exists. The dollar falls even further. Investors around the globe now requrire a higher rate of return to hold U.S. dollars. Interest rates rise. The economy slows…and so on…and so on.


There really isn't anything left for me to say (except buy foreign-currency denominated investments)!

Is Blackstone the McDonald's of the private-equity world?

Recently, it announced the $41 billion purchase of the Hilton chain of hotels. With this purchase, Blackstone now owns 700,000 hotel rooms across the globe.

Sounds suprisingly similar to McDonald's modus operandi. McDonald's owns prime location in most major cities on the planet. It rents the properties out to its franchises so basically its in the real estate business!

If Blackstone continues acquiring real estate it'll probably end up with a similar model to Mickey D's. Buying prime location with a business that pays the mortgage!

Dollar Hits A New Low

This week the US Dollar sank to 25 year lows against the Pound, AU/NZ Dollars and other currencies. There's a saying that money flows to where its treated best.

What does that mean? It means people are converting their money into currencies with the highest yields.

Yields on the AUD,NZD and South African Rand are quite a bit higher than here in the US. Their economies also seem to be growing faster than the US' too. SA Central bank Governor Tito Mboweni said last week that interest rates were 'too low'. The South African Reserve bank raised the benchmark lending rate by 50 basis points on June 7th and may raise them again on Aug. 16. Not surprizingly, the South African Rand is sitting at a six week high.

I don't know if its already too late to the party, but buying foreign currency ETFs or stocks with foreign exposure might not be a bad idea. I've done very well with Anglo Amercian (AAUK) and BHP Billinton (BHP).

Looking For Oil Shares On The Cheap

Recently ConocoPhilips(COP) announced that it was going to walk-away from its investment in Venezuela. President Chavez had indicated that it was going to take-over COP's operations in the Orinoco Valley. Rather than waste time with negotiating with a tinpot dictator and get pennies on the dollar, COP just decided to walk away.

It'll probably just write off the entire $4.5 Billion as a loss. For some reason, the stock hasn't reacted badly to this news at all. Today it gapped up and is trading at an all time high of $80.62!

Pretty interesting. If a loss of $5 Billion and future revenue won't drop a stock, I wonder what will?

The stock has nearly quadrupled in the past 5 years. I was hoping bad news would drop it a little bit and provide a good entry point.