Bull Market In Bureaucracy

According the interesting guys at Agora Finance, the all industry thats in a bull market is government employment!

Not sure why increased government spending is touted as a good thing. Sure it helps the economy from spiralling into a depression, but shouldn't there be some limit on it? Its not like we have any savings. We're just borrowing from foreigners who are happy to send us back their surplus-export-dollars in order to keep their currencies in check to prevent their exports from decreasing. At some point we might become like Japan, with a debt that's nearly 200% of GDP!

What Grows Faster Than Than Inflation?

If we knew what would grow faster than inflation, we all could just plonk our retirement money in it and be assured of safe leisurely life in our old age. So what has been proven to grow faster than inflation over the past century without fail?

Government Spending! According to the Privateer, "In 1909, the US federal government had an annual budget of $US 0.8 Billion. With this it governed a population of just over 90 million people. The cost of government was about $9 per capita. In 2009, the US federal government has an annual budget of $US 3,550 Billion. With this it governs a population of just over 300 million people. That's a cost of about $11,675 per capita."

Now if there was only some way to invest in government spending, we'd all be rich!

Another fact is that you could buy an ounce of silver for a dollar. Now it'll cost you over $17! Are you going to wait until its over $50/ounce before you start buying? For an interesting read check out Why $1,000 Gold is Now Significant

The Little Old Lady School Of Applied Economics

Someone sent me a very interesting letter from Bedlam Asset Management, quite an apt name given the economic situation over the past 2 years. Read it and you'll want to go out and buy gold coins!

Depending on where you live and how much you earn, so in the last five weeks you have seen a significant seasonal event, un-remarked as usual. This was the day when employees and employers alike have been allowed to earn some money. For until that day, everything you have earned this year has gone to the government by way of taxes. Now, and for the rest of the year, what you earn you can keep. It is odd that in modern times even the poorest members of society must, for at least the first 20 weeks of each year, work whilst all the income from their labour is appropriated by their rulers. Delightfully it’s even more backwards than the feudal Middle Ages, because then at least the serfs were fed and housed for free - but apparently, this is progress.

Today’s modern feudal treasurers have different problems. For in the small hours of the night, tucked up in their silk covered beds and away from the prying eyes of subservient apparatchiks, chancellors and central bankers writhe in their sleep with recurring night terrors. Occasionally murmuring of forbidden love, their ecstasy is crushed by more frequent groans of utter despair. For their subconscious reminds them that what they most crave they can never have and they are doomed to failure.

The history of money

Pre-history, when homo cave-potato decided he’d rather buy a club than make one, he needed a medium of exchange, and thus experimented with various forms of money including furs, cowrie shells, very large stones with holes in the middle, iron bars and blocks of salt. Each was unsuccessful; so early society soon settled on gold as the most practical medium of exchange, substituting it where supplies were limited, or when paying junior staff, with cheaper metals such as silver and copper. Although paper money has a long history, it was always explicitly understood that banknotes could be exchanged for something more tangible.

Since 1855 the Bank of England has been writing a now historically ironic promise “to pay the bearer on demand….. [in gold]”, even though any payment ceased in 1931. (This confusion is compounded by the fact that the ‘pound sterling’ refers to a weight in silver.)

Almost all countries produce coins which look as if they are made from silver and copper to give them credibility. Early bankers soon worked out that not everyone would want to cash in these IOUs at the same time, so began issuing more notes than were actually backed by physical gold.

Occasionally these ruses were found out, hence bank crashes; but as a global system it worked pretty well until 1913, when restrictions were imposed. Rather than cause a savings panic amongst the newly-monied middle classes, the system was replaced with a “let’s pretend” gold standard, which allowed for intra-government transfers of gold between debtor and creditor nations. This scheme limped along between major nations until July 1944 when, as a result of record wartime paper money printing, it too collapsed, to be replaced by the Bretton Woods Agreement. Now all currencies would be fixed, forever, at an agreed exchange rate to the dollar, which in turn was initially backed by physical gold held in Fort Knox, Kentucky and valued at $35 an ounce.

There is an excess of turgid financial books on this. The facts are really pretty simple.

This scheme survived for an even shorter period, collapsing in 1971 when France’s Général de Gaulle, again in wartime (Vietnam) decided to cash in the excess dollars France had accumulated, in return for America’s gold. This did not run at all well in Washington.

America decided to renege on the agreement (in practice a form of sovereign default).
The next permanent solution was ‘fiat money’, i.e. paper backed by nothing at all. At the core of this structure were the beliefs that (largely elected) politicians would be prudent economic stewards and if necessary could pay any financial obligations through taxing their local populations. The immutable fact about fiat money is that, over time, all paper currencies become worthless. Hence the mighty dollar today buys the same as 3.8 cents in 1900. Sterling is worse, the Swiss franc best, losing only four-fifths of its value in the same period.

The history of gold

Up until 1913, gold could be owned by anyone. Credit availability then was far more limited than now and inflation was self-correcting. So there were few reasons why its price should have varied much, and it didn’t, even when supply surged from new gold fields in the Americas, South Africa and Australia. It was a true store of value – a key purpose of money.

From 1913 onwards, private ownership became more and more difficult. The price was increasingly controlled by various arrangements fixed by a handful of central banks. The collapse of Bretton Woods removed the old $35 per oz. price cap which was then largely set by the free market. As a consequence, central bankers suffered a decade of near panic; for their populations immediately and very rudely showed an utter contempt for their politicians and financial authorities by increasingly referring to own gold rather than the local funny money. Naked emperors do not like being figures of fun, so quietly agreed to regain control of the price. These various changes included taxing gold purchases, making its ownership illegal and, most important of all, prolonged and increasingly co-ordinated attempts to force the price down.

Thus, leaving aside ancient history, unlike all other commodities and currencies gold has only had one full cycle. Once freed in 1971, the price soared to a peak of $832 in 1980 and was then slowly brought back under central control at the turn of the century. A return to suppressing the price worked in part because of unprecedented international co-operation, and more because “new” forms of credit creation seemingly made gold’s monetary role as irrelevant. The collapse of this new credit paradigm in 2008 means it too has become history. Funny money has joined the cowrie shell and large rock with a hole in the middle as socially interesting but failed experiments.

A new cycle begins

May 7th 1999 is a day that Britain’s current “Prime Minister” (the real power is a recent appointee to the House of Lords) would choose to forget. As a truly awful market trader, he widely broadcast his intentions to sell over half Britain’s gold reserves. In the next three years, 400 tonnes were sold between $256 and $296, leaving a mere 315 tonnes. The money raised was about $3.5 billion; its value today would be $12 billion.

Less-widely publicized than his astonishing naivety is that heavy selling of gold by central banks was also a fashionable, pan-European phenomenon. They have dumped nearly 4,000 tonnes in the last decade. Countries as diverse as France, Spain, Netherlands, Portugal and Italy also bought into a novel theory that central banks could be great currency traders and investors. This new idea was not led by Mr Brown at all but surprisingly, the Swiss National Bank. Since 1999 it has sold 1,550 tonnes. In each case it is impossible to prove whether the proceeds of gold
sales actually produced a better return than continuing to hold its reserves against a crisis. In the case of the Swiss, the difference between sales proceeds and today’s price is about $22bn (a ‘loss’ of over $3,000 per yodeller); or to put it into another context, the amount received is about half the direct cash injections, write downs and capital raised by the single Swiss Bank UBS in the last 18 months. So empirically the money has not been well used.

The implication is that, in Switzerland and across Europe, there has been a very high opportunity cost. Slowly realising in 2004 how dumb they were all looking, fourteen of Europe’s central banks agreed a structure to limit how much of their gold reserves each could sell annually (the Central Bank Gold Agreement). With the usual clarity of hindsight, these sales signalled the last hurrah and the failure of a prolonged period of deliberately trying to distort the gold market.

Do as I say, not as I do

Even so, gold still accounts for 60% of Europe’s reserves. Yet the developing world -
suffering a post colonial inferiority complex - saw what their one-time masters were doing, so also eschewed gold. Thus it accounts for only 11% of their reserves. Meanwhile America (which years earlier had already given a strong hint of what it really believed about gold, by reneging on its IOUs to Général de Gaulle), still has 8,133 tonnes. This accounts for 79% of its reserves. For all the central bank learned papers and propaganda¹ that gold should play no meaningful part in national reserves policy, most developed western countries have steadfastly maintained gold at the core of their reserve systems, but the absolute and relative size of these reserves has shrunk considerably. In contrast, the size of reserves in Asian countries has grown like smoke, to the extent that just six ‘countries’² – China, Japan, Taiwan,
South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore - now account for over half of the world’s estimated $7 trillion of reserves. Of these, 66% is held in dollars, about three times greater than that held in euros; the yen and sterling each account for less than 1.5%.

Given that the US remains by far the world’s largest economy and trading partner, and as most commodities are priced in dollars, there is logic to this. Yet there are two flaws to a fiat money, dollar-based reserve system. The first is that, whatever American leaders may occasionally say to placate their allies, both the government and population have almost no interest in the dollar exchange rate against any other currency. As an economy which at a pinch could (apart from oil) be almost entirely self-contained, this too is logical. The second flaw is that, also at a pinch, America could longer term be entirely self funding.

The recent implosion of the international banking system has led to all governments printing money at a record rate. The balance sheet of America’s Federal Reserve has increased by over a trillion dollars since the end of 2007. The target for this year’s budget deficit is $1.2 trillion. The Congressional Budget Office is forecasting a return to a budget surplus in 2019 (one underlying assumption is there will be no further recessions) and that by then, Federal debt will have increased from the current $11 trillion to $21 trillion. This excludes worrisome state (i.e. California) and local (such as school boards) budget deficits. The money printing is by any standard off the scale; one way to put this in context perhaps is that in ten years time, on official - thus optimistic - forecasts, America’s Federal debt will be $3,000 for every person
alive in the world today. Not that America is the worst, it’s just the biggest. That whacky Silvio in Italy has a far greater problem, as does the UK.

Central bankers know of course that all currencies eventually become worthless – it is one of their night terrors - but they prefer it does not happen too visibly or quickly on their watch. Moreover, as most had bought into the mantra of Europe’s industrialised countries that “gold is for girls and wimps” (despite ensuring most of their own reserves remain in that metal), they are embarrassingly naked. Of China’s vast, nearly $2 trillion, foreign exchange reserves, a mere 2% is in gold. China is now in a dollar trap of its own making.

If it seeks to reduce its estimated $1.5 trillion of reserves in dollars (mostly in government bonds) the price will collapse. Worse still, unless it picks up its ‘share’ of newly minted American bonds the price will also collapse.

This explains China’s sudden interest in, and many pronouncements on the international financial system, as well as the lifting of the veil of secrecy over its own reserves. Until this year, it had not commented on these in detail for the previous six. Now its Premier and central bank Governor have become almost garrulous; suggestions have included that the world should establish a new financial order, including perhaps the use of SDRs, lecturing US administration on fiscal prudence and curiously, threatening America that it might diversify and thus collapse the American bond market. (The equivalent of trying to mug someone with a stick of damp spaghetti). This threat included the sudden announcement that its gold reserves – last reported at 600 tonnes in 2003 - have since increased to 1,054 tonnes making it
no. 5 in the world after Italy, and showing it could diversify if America refuses to listen. (There may also be a sub-plot; as the new kid on the block, it could be expected that China wants to be close to the US over time in the absolute level of its gold reserves.)

The dollar dummies

Yet for all the current uncertainty and noise, China and the other large, and largely Asian, holders of foreign currency reserves (or ‘dollar suckers’) have already worked out that they must diversify away from their giant dollar holdings, although they remain uncertain as to how. Their problem is size. Supposing China was to buy all this year’s new mine supply, estimated at 2,500 tonnes. Leaving aside that such action would cause the price to soar, one tonne is worth approximately $30 million at $950 per ounce - so this would ‘only’ cost $75 billion, less than 5% of China’s reserves. It could buy all its oil requirements for the next six months. That would only absorb 8% of reserves. Other Asian countries suffering a similar squeeze have tried other routes: South Korea attempted to buy an area of farm land in Madagascar larger than Wales, until international political and ecological shrieks forced it to withdraw; Singapore’s Temasek (not officially part of the country’s reserve system) made such disastrous forays into buying large blocks of shares, that last year the value of its funds fell by 47% (although it has since clawed some back).

On a much smaller scale, China has also been trying foreign investment and larger political/infrastructure development in Africa, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. For all the lack of success with these various experiments, the diversification urge will not stop. Moreover, some new policies are becoming clearer. It appears China will look to buy almost all its domestically produced gold production, a pattern which others may follow. From recently being a minnow in the sector, China is now the world’s largest gold producer, outstripping South Africa, Australia or Brazil.

Last year, the world’s central banks sold a mere 246 tonnes of gold, the smallest quantity in over a decade. These sellers were mostly Europeans, for the rest of the world’s central banks were net buyers of gold for the first time in 15 years. Under the various central selling agreements, the latest of which will probably commence in September this year, it is becoming clear that, as these banks watch their own paper money being printed at a breakneck speed and observe their neighbours doing the same, they have become keener to hang onto what gold they still have. Given that, since 1977, Europe’s central banks have been eager to hold the gold price down, their absence as the price fixer is a major change.

An absence of sellers?

There are an estimated 30,000 tonnes of gold above the ground in reserves. No-one has any serious notion of how much else there is elsewhere, on fingers, in teeth, in jewellery or coins and bars. Estimates for the total amount of gold ever mined vary between 250,000 to 350,000 tonnes, of which a significant portion will have been lost (buried hoards, at sea etc.). More recently, individuals have been the net accumulators, central banks the sellers. What exists above the ground is far more important than mine supply, which is likely to remain in a gradual downtrend. Current annual production of around 2,500 tonnes is down by over a third on peak levels of the 1970s and unlikely to rise much. Perhaps new giant deposits will one
day be found but meanwhile, gold mining is becoming more expensive, deeper and more difficult. Thus the only realistic sources of new supply can be America, the IMF or the ECB.

For the US, policy has long been blindingly clear: do nothing. Hence reserves (America has the largest gold backed reserves in the world, albeit small in relation to the size of the economy) have remained unchanged. It is unlikely Congress will allow any change. The IMF has notional control of 3,412 tonnes, of which 400 tonnes is due to be sold this year. Of all major international bodies, the IMF has the greatest, almost visceral loathing of gold, preferring its own whacky SDRs instead. These are the ultimate funny money, being a fiat currency based on a basket of other fiat currencies.

Yet the IMF too may be chary of significant official sales because of its earlier failure.
Between 1976 and 1980 “in a bid to reduce the role of gold in the international monetary system” it sold 1,600 tonnes. About half of this was at the official SDR35 price (about $58) back to underlying central bank owners. (This is so dumb: the ‘Brownian notion’ of prudent finances to an absurd extreme; the market price varied between two and 24 times greater).

The other half was sold through a series of public auctions, initially 150,000 ounces per month rising to a peak of over 850,000. The policy of turning up supply was a poker game, trying to scare the market into believing that demand would be crushed. Yet as supply increased arithmetically, the amount bid for increased geometrically. It actually created a fire storm in the gold market, moving the price from $103 to $832. As abject failures in market interventions go, the IMF was the clear winner. Thus it would be loath to do so again; and it has another problem. The IMF does not own all the gold it holds; it belongs to its member states, which have pledged it to the IMF and could unpledge or replace with paper money. As already mentioned, most members are developing a marked propensity not to sell any more gold. The third potential source is the ECB or its member countries; many are the same nations with egg all over their faces which have been the vanguard of selling a substantial proportion of their reserves at much lower prices. That leaves only Germany (No. 2 gold owner in the world with 3,412 tonnes, 72% of reserves), noticeable only for the government’s inability to agree how much to sell, or what to do with the proceeds. As important, the Bundesbank has always been a reluctant seller of significant quantities of the nation’s gold because of its Weimar hyperinflation history.

Conclusions

Four decades on from a financial experiment with fiat money, the evidence suggests it is failing. Although governments will continue with the current system, relying on their ability to tax future generations, poor demographics alone in all advanced nations mean the odds that the current fiat money regime will survive unchanged for long are worsening. As suggested in previous reports, change may be driven by this recession, followed by years of stop-go economic activity and a series of sovereign defaults – which are normal. The largest central banks have doubled or tripled their balance sheets in the last 15 months. This is an explosion in fiat money. Giant budget deficits and rising unemployment ensure that government money creation will remain explosive for the foreseeable future. These problems are exacerbated by a variety of new events, for instance Asia’s reserve diversification programmes and the marked reluctance of historic sellers to reduce their holdings further. It is simple school economics that a very finite supply of one form of money will respond to an
almost fission-like increase in the supply of other forms of money, such as the amount of dollars, yen or euros in circulation.

It is very easy to make a case that the gold price could enjoy or suffer (depending on your point of view) an explosive run. Given all economies (and businesses) are cyclical, then it is axiomatic that over time they will also revert to the mean. Therefore it can be expected that not just central banks, but also commercial banks and other financial institutions will revert to earlier policies of the 1970s and ‘80s – of holding a proportion of their ‘core’ capital in gold. (Bedlam has 10% of its balance sheet there already, and 10% -12% of all client portfolios are in gold shares.) Governments could try to prevent wider gold ownership as before, but new
forms of ownership - such as gold ETFs - make it difficult to do so unless all leading nations agree simultaneously.

We have commenced only the second gold cycle under fiat money. Whether it has actually peaked already, or will shortly double, we can only divine by looking at chickens’ entrails or throwing our rune-sticks. We use an average price of $850 per ounce in 2010 when valuing gold shares, as that is prudent, yet our damp rabbit’s foot hints at a much higher price before the end of 2010 because the triggers are already in place: the absence of meaningful new mine supply, the cessation of central bank sales, explosive growth in money supply and of course, rising political uncertainty, which is the Siamese twin of recessions. Top economic schools used to train their pupils to sneer at little old ladies who kept their savings in gold coins in a
sock rather than trusting national banks. Today it is clear which group are the financial dimwits; perhaps an inherent understanding of cycles can only be learned through longevity. We subscribe to the little old lady school of applied economics. We are therefore certain that central bankers’ nightmares will worsen as their paper currencies devalue against the most trusted store of value, and in bed, the thing they secretly lust after.

Regards
Bedlam Asset Management plc

This is buy far one of the most interesting emails I've received in a long time. Please keep them coming!

The Biggest Crashes In History

According Bill Bonner:

We've seen the biggest stock crash in history...
..the biggest property crash in history...
..the biggest deficits in history (four times the previous record!)...
..the biggest bailouts in history (we can't even count that high)...
..the biggest bankruptcies in history...
..the auto industry and the finance industry have been largely nationalized...
..the president of the United States of America is now making financial decisions for formerly private industries...
What's left to see?
Oh yes...the depression...and hyperinflation.

Hope you guys are protecting yourself by buying real assets, shorting long-term bonds and buy gold coins.

Must Read: You Should Be Petrified

Great video from Howard Davidowitz. He doesn't hold back any punches. If you can't check out the video, which I highly recommend, then here's a brief summary:

The green shoots story took a bit of hit this week between data on April retail sales, weekly jobless claims and foreclosures. But the whole concept of the economy finding its footing was "preposterous" to begin with, says Howard Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates.

"We're in a complete mess and the consumer is smart enough to know it," says Davidowitz, whose firm does consulting for the retail industry. "If the consumer isn't petrified, he or she is a damn fool."

Davidowitz, who is nothing if not opinionated (and colorful), paints a very grim picture: "The worst is yet to come with consumers and banks," he says. "This country is going into a 10-year decline. Living standards will never be the same."

This outlook is based on the following main points:

• With the unemployment rate rising into double digits - and that's not counting the millions of "underemployed" Americans - consumers are hitting the breaks, which is having a huge impact, given consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic activity.
• Rising unemployment and the $8 trillion negative wealth effect of housing mean more Americans will default on not just mortgages but student loans and auto loans and credit card debt.
• More consumer loan defaults will hit banks, which are also threatened by what Davidowitz calls a "depression" in commercial real estate, noting the recent bankruptcy of General Growth Properties and distressed sales by Developers Diversified and other REITs.

As for all the hullabaloo about the stress tests, he says they were a sham and part of a "con game to get private money to finance these institutions because [Treasury] can't get more money from Congress. It's the ‘greater fool' theory."

"We're now in Barack Obama's world where money goes into the most inefficient parts of the economy and we're bailing everyone out," says Daviowitz, who opposes bailouts for financials and automakers alike. "The bailout money is in the sewer and gone."

The Story of TARP Wife

In sharp contrast to the post of on Toxic Wives, is a story about a TARP wife.

Confessions of a TARP Wife

Forget the opera. Cancel dinner at Bouley. How life has changed since my CEO husband went on the government dole.

I am a TARP wife.



In keeping with the unwritten code of this new sisterhood, I have taken a vow of financial abstinence. I returned the presents my husband gave me for Christmas (but didn't tell him, since he's already awash in gloom) and am using my credit balances at all the major department stores for important gifts and other necessities.

I haven't even looked at spring clothes; God forbid someone catches me out in something new. Keeping up with fashion seems somehow decadent in this new era, like getting Botox injections or catered dinners. Like so many others, I'm shopping in my closet. I've bought exactly two things this year -- makeup and panty hose. If I buy a present for someone, I have the package sent to their home. I don't want to be spotted climbing into a taxi, laden with Bergdorf Goodman shopping bags.

As you can see, being a TARP wife means, in short, making decisions according to a complex algorithm: balancing the need to look like your world hasn't crumbled beneath you -- let's not alarm the investors! -- with the need to appear duly repentant for your subprime sins. It also means we're part of the community of more than 400 companies that have received government bailout funds, whose fall from grace has been swifter and harsher than any since Mao frog-marched intellectuals into China's countryside.

Hitting the perfect note isn't always easy. For instance, for the past 15 years or so, I have thrown my husband a birthday party. We traditionally celebrate with about 30 friends, mostly New York pals we've known for decades. We're not talking an end-of-an-era Stephen Schwarzman-type $10 million blowout. Ours is a pretty sedate affair.

This year, of course, entertaining our crowd at our usual multi-star Michelin hotspots would simply not do. Extravagant is out; conservative is in. But not hosting a birthday dinner would have spurred rumors that we were broke, not a welcome thought either. Juggling these conflicting impulses, I decided on a slimmed-down party. Choosing Versailles to host World War I peace negotiations could not have been more complicated than my attempt to select the perfect spot for our annual dinner. Naturally, every restaurant I contacted was willing to meet my reduced budget; now that Wall Street firms are no longer entertaining clients or hosting events, New York eateries are struggling.

At the end of the day, it came down to a choice between an especially accommodating (and well-known) high-end restaurant and a less expensive, clubbier spot. We ultimately picked the cozier restaurant -- even though it ended up costing us more, so eager was the more chic outfit to host the party. Why spend the extra bucks? Because our chosen place is distinctly low-profile and rarely mentioned in the press. We did not need a snarky story about a "Wall Street bigwig living it up while taxpayers wonder where their money went." Really, not even President Obama spends this much time looking after his image.

It wasn't long ago that America celebrated successful companies and the people who run them. My husband, CEO of one of the biggest TARP recipients, has received more than his share of accolades (in my opinion, well deserved). But because of a few tin-eared nitwits who failed to notice that their industry was under siege, the entire country now thinks that TARP bankers are greedy incompetents dedicated to ripping off taxpayers. Fancy wastebaskets, under-the-rug bonuses, lavish junkets -- these are Exhibits A, B, and C in the people's case against Wall Street. Even the Octomom gets better press.

Here is the reality: TARP managers are scared to death. The executives of these companies are desperately trying to hold their businesses together while complying with a slew of damaging bills flooding out of Congress. My husband has battled the shutdown of the credit markets and a deteriorating business environment for two endless years without respite. He's exhausted, terrified of losing the company, and beaten down by the constant criticism hurled at him.

I'm trying to buck him up and not complicate his life. The last thing he needs is unpleasant publicity, so I'm learning to fly so far below the radar that I have perpetually skinned knees. We've picked up new habits, like making donations anonymously and sneaking in late to black-tie galas after society photographer Patrick McMullan has packed up his camera and gone home. We now regularly turn down the invitations we receive from museums and arts organizations that will inevitably be followed by a request for funds. No point in getting their hopes up.

I get it that I may not win much sympathy. Why should I? I'm not pleading poverty. We still live in relative luxury, we can afford almost everything we need, and we aren't facing the prospect of losing our home or having to turn to our families to support us. But we are getting squeezed.

Like most Americans, we are worried about money. Our net worth is tied up in stock that is down 95 percent. Last year, before it became fashionable to do so, my husband refused a bonus. Because of the new restrictions, his pay this year will be a fraction of what it was. The combined swoon in our income has caused us to cut spending drastically, in hopes that we can hang on to some remnant of our former lifestyle.

In an effort to conserve cash, we are eating out less frequently, meaning that I've been turning out some pretty dreadful lasagna. Actually, staying home and watching Law & Order reruns has become our new guilty pleasure. It's a far cry from opening night at the Metropolitan Opera, but it's not bad. I drive the family crazy by switching off the lights every time we leave a room. Needless to say, we fly commercial. Using the company plane is now out of bounds; we've heard there are reporters staking out the private airports.

I have become oddly superstitious. On some level, I feel I'm being punished for too many thoughtless years of assuming that the trappings of success were earned and not given. I'm constantly knocking on wood or offering little good-citizen sacrifices, like manically recycling or chatting with telemarketers.

I'm struggling with how to communicate all this to our children. We're thankful that they're intent on making their own way in the world, but at the same time, they confidently rely on us for help. One daughter recently mused about going back to business school. I hope she didn't notice my instantly negative reaction, stemming completely from concern about the cost. I cannot bring myself to shake her foundation. The collapse of the world economy has already crushed the confidence of young people just starting out. Meanwhile, retirement is like a rainbow, a beautiful mirage that we'll probably never reach. To some people, these may seem like luxury problems, but to us they are painful.

I've watched the skin under my husband's eyes take on a yellowish hue, and his hair turn from gray to grayer, as he tries to lead his company through this mess. He's up every night for hours at a stretch, and for the first time, he has health issues. For a person whose life has been punctuated mainly by success -- from perennial class president and high-school sports star to Ivy League MBA -- failure is the worst of all nightmares. He seems off balance, as though self-confidence were a physical ballast that he is slowly losing. It's heartbreaking how often he apologizes to me for losing so much of our money, for making so many mistakes.

I know people are angry at those they view as responsible for the subprime crisis and the subsequent economic meltdown. I don't blame them. I'm angry too. But my fury extends to any number of culprits: to Alan Greenspan, who encouraged the loose-money policies that undermined the pricing of risk; to Barney Frank, who cudgeled Fannie Mae into supporting loans to unfit homebuyers; to the rating agencies that were ethically compromised; to the subprime-mortgage brokers who chased fees and ignored any accountability; to the investors who didn't do their homework and absurdly leveraged up their balance sheets. I'm an equal-opportunity blamer.

And yes, I blame those who were in charge of the big banks -- including my husband -- for not seeing the default tsunami coming. But almost no one did. Everyone knows this, yet financial CEOs have replaced the Mob as the most despised group in the country.

The good news is that Americans have short attention spans. Before long, some other group will come along to absorb all the frustration and anger.

Meanwhile, I'm off to the tailors to get some clothes altered. Shopping your closet is great unless you've put on a few pounds over the years. I've been holding out hope that fewer nights out could shrink me to fit back into some of the past warhorses of my wardrobe. Unfortunately, our appetite for comfort food has risen in proportion to the Dow's decline; the selloff this past month has upped our mac-and-cheese intake and created a sinecure for my seamstress.

Government Guaranteed Depression

Here's a very interesting article by Dan Amoss:

The American people voted for change…and now they’re going to get it. But the change they get may not be the change they expect Obama to deliver. Something more sinister may be coming our way.

After an historic election and inauguration, president-elect Obama will enter office with a huge list of challenges. These challenges — from a contracting economy to large-scale corporate bankruptcies to soaring national indebtedness — will undoubtedly restrict his agenda.

Let’s hope Obama recognizes the need for incentives, profits, and capital investments in the economy. The economy cannot be taxed and regulated without potentially severe consequences. Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker (and the last Fed chairman to provide adult supervision for the banking community) is an Obama adviser. So Obama should be apprised of the consequences of Carter-era deficit spending and money printing.

At the very least, Obama must act as a check on the potential for a Democrat-dominated Congress to turn a recession into a depression.

For example, some in Congress are floating a proposal to steal your 401(k), sell the proceeds, and invest in “government-guaranteed” retirement accounts. The only thing this Marxist idea would guarantee is a depression. Call or write your congressman if you feel that your 401(k) is in danger. We shouldn’t allow them to steal more from prudent savers than they already have.

Keep in mind that presidencies rarely resemble campaigns. President Bush campaigned on limited government and a humble foreign policy, and we got the opposite. To top it off, we had the illusion of real growth, with credit and housing bubbles that led to the greatest misallocation of resources in history.

The free market has been falsely accused for this financial crisis. But the free market didn’t get us here; a combination of government spending and crony capitalism did. Much ink is wasted on how we need to re-regulate Wall Street, but the fact is that the problem would never have grown so large without agency conflicts.

The agency conflict on Wall Street is the mentality of “heads I win, tails you lose.” CEOs, traders, and mortgage-backed security factories were paid more for taking more risk. So it shouldn’t surprise us that they overdosed on leverage to magnify returns, without considering risk.

Performance pay should be based on creating long-term shareholder value, not on meeting next quarter’s earnings estimate. A good place to start would be bonuses in the form of restricted stock that does not vest for 10 years. I doubt Lehman would have blown up if employees were paid modest salaries with the potential for sizeable ownership stakes in the future.

Much of our current mess resulted from totally complacent, incompetent boards of directors. Carl Icahn has good ideas for how this can be addressed without excessive regulation. Icahn explains how most corporate boards behave like government bureaucrats in this post . In my view, we need an economy in which everyone acts like owners, rather than CEO-pillagers.

A banking system built upon on a foundation of paper money also contributed to this crisis. The Treasury and Fed allowed institutions to grow “too big to fail.” Without taxpayer subsidies (i.e., Fannie and Freddie — two of the worst crony capitalist institutions in history) and the subsidy of Fed rate cuts, housing prices would have kept growing in step with household income. Instead, house prices went to the moon. Precious capital was thrown into a black hole when mortgage-underwriting discipline went out the window and homebuyers deluded themselves with bubble psychology.

When the current deflation fears are finally slain by widespread recognition that paper money is limitless, we’ll probably see a return to inflation and higher long-term interest rates.

For now, though, demand for bonds remains strong (rates remain low). So the government will likely keep issuing record amounts of new Treasuries and use the proceeds for bailout after bailout, instead of for productive uses. In other words, the government will toss billions of dollars at walking corpses like AIG – a company that produces nothing but spectacular losses and embarrassing headlines – instead of tossing billions of dollars at companies that produce essential items like barrels of oil or bushels of wheat. When governments toss easy credit toward non-productive industries, the supply of currency soars relative to the supply of goods and services. We call this phenomenon, “Inflation.”

The U.S. government’s massive borrowing requirements over the next several months will absorb a lot of the private capital that would otherwise fund various productive enterprises. So that means that farmers and miners and manufacturers will struggle to secure the credit and investment they need to finance their production. And if farmers can’t get credit, they can’t plant crops, which means that grain supplies are likely to fall…and prices to rise.

As Albert Einstein observed, “The significant problems we face cannot be solved by the same level of thinking that created them.” If the federal government proposes “solutions” to this crisis with the same type of thinking that got us here, we could be in for a very long period of economic pain. America’s status as a destination for foreign capital is at stake.

If the new government fails to act wisely and understand how we got here, the only “government guarantee” we’ll have is depression.

I think this scenario will play out. The only question is when it will happen. When it eventually does, real assets like gold and real estate will soar. Right now you can buy both of these assets relatively cheaply.

Shortage of American Gold Buffalo Coins

The market dropped a stunning 777 points today, the worst drop in years. Not surprisingly, gold held it's ground today.In fact, it even popped $20 this morning as the market plummeted. The same way oil is reverting to a thought process of old, gold seems to be regaining its role as a “flight to safety.” It's currently selling for just over $900/oz.

But gold is still down 10% from it's highs this year of $1030/oz. Funnily enough,as the market for gold ramps up, the U.S. government has suspended sales of its most popular 24-karat gold coin.

The 24-karat American Buffalo is in such high demand that the US Mint has simply run out. The U.S. Mint sang the same tune for the 1-ounce American Eagle coins back in August. After running out of Eagles, the Mint suspended sales and later reopened the market to only “designated dealers.”

As of last week, the Mint had sold over 164,000 American Buffalo coins in 2008, up 54% from the same time last year.

Isn't it odd that there is a shortage of physical gold and yet the prices are lower than they were several months ago? Am I the only one wondering about this supply-demand anomaly? Or maybe it's a new economy, just like the stock market in 1999 when revenue and profits didn't matter, but esoteric new criteria like "number of eyeballs" were developed.

If you want to buy gold coins and are having a tough time finding them, check out this store which aggregates my favorite set of gold coin collectibles.

Jim Rogers: The American Dollar Is A Flawed Currency

Legendary investor Jim Rogers thinks the US economy & dollar is on sever decline. Check out this great article in the UK's Guardian newspaper:

Indiana Jones and the China crusade
by Nils Pratley

Jim Rogers, investment guru; co-founder of Quantum Fund with George Soros

The American dollar is a flawed currency and will collapse in value before the end of the decade, taking with it the prosperity of the American nation. Investors should be buying commodities - platinum, lead, wheat, sugar, oil, the sort of assets that haven't been fashionable for a quarter of a century or more. While you're at it, teach your children to speak Mandarin, the coming language of the 21st century. And don't encourage them to do an MBA: "Tell them to be a farmer and do a real job."

Such advice, if given by your regular financial adviser, would probably provoke a complaint to the ombudsman. The speaker, though, is Jim Rogers, a legendary Wall Street name. The Indiana Jones of finance - a nickname earned by virtue of two round the world trips in the name of grass-roots investment research - has become a multimillionaire by backing such views with hard cash.

In 1973, Rogers and George Soros founded Quantum, one of the first and most successful hedge funds. In Britain, the Quantum Fund is best known for making £1bn by selling sterling ahead of Britain's exit from the exchange rate mechanism on Black Wednesday in 1992, but Rogers' contribution came before then. He helped Quantum to return a 4,000% gain in its first 10 years and departed in 1980, staying a year longer than he had intended only because 1979 had been so profitable - he predicted the stock market crash of that year.

The "poor boy from Alabama" whose first job was picking up bottles at baseball games at the age of five, retired at the age of 37 a very wealthy man. He set about managing his own fortune and travelling the world, projects that have become virtually indistinguishable over the years. In the early 90s, Rogers travelled 65,000 miles roving the world by motorbike and related the tale in his first book, Investment Biker. Last year, he completed a second, Adventure Capitalist, which was the result of an even more ambitious journey: a three-year, 150,000 mile journey by custom- built Mercedes across 116 countries with his girlfriend, who became his wife along the way - in Henley-on-Thames, of all places.

Snake burger

Like the earlier book, it is part anecdote - what it's like to eat snake; what happened when he forgot about the bottle of vodka in the boot when trying to enter Saudi Arabia - but the heart is commonsense investment analysis built on firsthand observations. His philosophy is that you learn about a country from talking to brothel owners and black marketeers rather than government ministers.

In conversation, Rogers rattles along in similar style. He punctuates everything with American-style full disclosure of his personal holdings - "I'm short Citibank, incidentally," he will interject into a dissection of the rotten heart of the American stock market - and delights in challenging received wisdom. His central argument is that a new bull market has started that will match the fireworks seen in the dotcom-fuelled stock markets of the late 90s. This time, though, the bull market will be in commodities not shares. Rogers' reasoning is straightforward: raw materials are running out.

"There has been no great oil discovery in the past 35 years," he argues. "The North Sea has peaked. Alaska is in decline. Mexico is in decline. All these great oilfields are in decline. To anybody who thinks I am lying about this, I would ask: where is the oil going to come from?

China bull

"Mines deplete. Wells deplete. It's supply. In the 1970s, we had horrible economies around the world, but commodities skyrocketed despite those horrible economies because there was no supply. That is happening again."

How high is high? The nature of all bull markets, he argues, is that prices go higher than anybody would have imagined possible. "Nobody could ever have thought that Cisco could go to $75 [it had been $5 a few years earlier]. Who would have thought in the 1970s that oil could go to $40 a barrel - it was $2 a barrel in the 1960s," he says.

"Sugar in 1966 was 1.4 cents per pound. In 1972 - six years later - sugar was 66 cents. Who could have conceived that? For decades, it had done between one and five cents. If you had said in 1966 that it would go up 47 times they would have made you certifiably insane. But it happened."

Hand in hand with this faith in the value of commodities is a long-term confidence in China, whose appetite for raw materials has already fuelled a strong rise in commodity prices in the past 18 months. All the best capitalists live in communist China, he argues, and overseas Chinese are returning with their capital and expertise. He has employed a Chinese nanny for his one-year-old daughter. Mandarin will be the most important language in his child's lifetime, he thinks.

But even this China bull predicts a major economic slowdown there, with accompanying political unrest, very soon. In this, he is not wholly out of the line with the consensus thinking - City economists are currently debating whether China's landing, after a decade of extraordinary growth, will be hard or soft. Rogers' view is that it will be very hard, but will also represent a golden investment opportunity.

"I remind you of the last two times that China had to cut back an overheated economy," he says. "In the late 80s, it led to Tiananmen Square when things got out of control and the second time was in the mid-90s, when they had to devalue their currency. Sometime this year or next you will see headlines in the Guardian, 'Turmoil in China'. At that point, you buy all the China you can and all the commodities you can because that will be bottom of the consolidation in commodities and consolidation in China."

Buying in the face of prevailing hysteria is a principle that has served Rogers well over the years. Crisis in China - however serious it looks at the time - will merely mark the end of the first leg of this new bull market, he thinks.

"Remember," he enthuses, "that the second leg is wonderful, and the third leg is spectacular. In the fourth leg, there is dancing in the streets and in the fifth leg people are hysterical and everything is skyrocketing every day. We are nowhere near the second leg, much less the third, fourth and fifth legs."

His bearishness on the US dollar is predicated on economic fundamentals, notably the balance of payments. Alan Greenspan, the chairman of the Federal Reserve and Rogers' bogeyman-in-chief, has been printing money on an unprecedented scale and President George Bush has been spending it just as rapidly.

"The US owes the world $8 trillion," he argues. "We are the world's largest debtor nation by a factor of many times and our foreign debts are increasing by $1 trillion every 21 months. That's terrifying.

Dollar demise

"People need to understand about this major change in the world and about the demise of the US dollar. The US dollar is going the way that sterling went as it lost its place as the world's reserve currency. I suspect there will be exchange controls in the US in the foreseeable future. It will be a complicated and difficult currency."

Not that Rogers is a fan of many currencies. He says he has stakes in a dozen but has "no confidence in any of them". He expects the euro to fail eventually but holds some anyway because he judges it to be less flawed than the dollar. For the record, his daughter's assets are held in Swiss francs and gold, silver and platinum coins.

Unlike his old partner, Soros, who has devoted part of his vast fortune to opposing Bush's election campaign, Rogers stands wholly outside the political fray. He calls the US-led invasion of Iraq a "horrible, horrendous, unbelievable mistake", but thinks the Democratic candidate, John Kerry, would make his own mistakes. "They wouldn't be politicians if they knew what they were doing," he says, far from flippantly.

The balance of payments, and the looming dollar crisis, make the election result irrelevant, he argues: "Whoever is elected president is going to have serious problems in 2005-06. We Americans are going to suffer."

The CV

Born 1942, Alabama

Education Yale; Balliol College, Oxford

Career US army; co-founder, Quantum Fund; professor of finance, Columbia University Graduate School of Business

Family Married to Parker Paige with a daughter

Interests Henley royal regatta

More Ways That Airlines Can Charge Passengers

American Airlines has just announced that it will begin charging passengers $15 to check in their baggage. I think a better system would be to charge by weight. You stand on the scale with all your baggage and pay a standard rate based on total weight and distance traveling.

According to Romesh Chander of Bellingham, WA, here are some ideas for
More ways that airlines can make money off passengers:

Toilet usage on the plane -- $5
Issung Ticket -- $5
Issuing Boarding Pass -- $5
Checking Boarding Pass at Gate -- $5

Piolts charge for flying plane -- $20
Copilot's charge for flying plane -- $15

Charge for leaving on time -- $5
Charge for arriving on time -- $5
Charge for arriving in correct city -- $5
Charge for arriving safely -- $5

Unscheduled stop -- $50

Bumpy ride -- $10
Lost luggage -- $10
Finding lost luggage -- $10

Clean plane -- $5

COMPLAINTS/questions (Any kind) -- $20

Fuel surcharge varies
Base ticket rate varies

Tip for Stewards $20% of final bill

Pension plan for executives $10% of final bill

Anybody got any other ideas?

Why The Dollar Is Strengthening

Yes, the dollar is rallying. It's been on a tear the past week.

It must be because the U.S. economy has turned around.

The deficit no longer needs to be financed with over $2 Billion a day in foreign investment.

Interest rates are appropriately high to be able to fight this soaring inflation.

The US government has stopped spending wildly, and the Budget is balanced.

The mortgage lenders have recovered all of their losses.

There is no longer a credit crunch.

And the war is the Middle East is finally over - the US is dismantling its gigantic military empire and has decided to use that money on improving our decaying infrastructure.

Because of all these factors, I believe the US Dollar will continue to keep on strengthening. According, I will be selling all my foreign currencies along with my gold and silver coins!

Economic Stimulus Checks Being Sent Out Early

The IRS has announced that they will now be sending out economic stimulus payments starting this Monday, April 28th. Initially, the first direct deposits were going to be sent on May 2nd, but the government can't wait to stimulate the economy.

Of course, I have no idea how sending everyone a one time check will actually stimulate the economy over an extended period of time. Maybe the underlying assumption is that recipients will go out and spend the money on goods and services that they don’t need. But, I suspect that many people will use it to pay off credit card debts, payday loans, get current on their mortgage, or save for their emergency fund. Of course, even if they do spend it, there's no guarantee that this will actually make any lasting impact on the economy. Maybe it might impact the 2nd quarter numbers but what after that? Will the government send us quarterly checks to keep on stimulating the economy?

Here is the original timetable for receiving your payment:

DIRECT DEPOSIT

Last two SSN digits: Payment will be transmitted by:

* 00 through 20 May 2
* 21 through 75 May 9
* 76 through 99 May 16

PAPER CHECK

Last two SSN digits: Payments will be mailed by:

* 00 through 09 May 16
* 10 through 18 May 23
* 19 through 25 May 30
* 26 through 38 June 6
* 39 through 51 June 13
* 52 through 63 June 20
* 64 through 75 June 27
* 76 through 87 July 4
* 88 through 99 July 11

But it seems that these dates will be pushed forward a few days. You should start seeing direct deposit this coming Monday.

Canadian Dollar Hits Parity With US Dollar

Today the Loonie achieved parity with the US dollar for the first time in 30 years. Five years ago, 65 cents could buy you 1 Canadian Dollar. Since then the Dollar has devalued 50% against the CAD and nearly 100% against Gold. This has been partly due to a massive increase in the number of Dollars floating around, and partly because of the low interest rates which no longer attract much foreign interest.



The 50 basis point cut in the Federal Funds rate isn't going to save us from recession. What it definitely did do is weaken the dollar further against all major currencies.

How are you going to Hedge against a weakening dollar?

I been a strong advocate of investing in Gold and Silver for 2 years. Today Gold hit $735 after trading around around the $665 mark for the past year.

I realized that the Feds were going to drop the rate last week and put in an order to buy FXA. FXA is the CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust, an ETF that tracks the price of the Australian Dollar. Immediately after the Fed rate cut it jumped 3% and is up 4% for the week. It also pays an annual yield of approximately 5% on a monthly basis.

As the Dollar continues to weaken, I expect FXA to keep on appreciating. The question is how low do you think the Dollar will go?

Homes For Everyday Heroes?

According to the FirstHomebuilders.com, based out of florida, they're selling homes to everyday heroes. You can buy one of their brand new homes with $500 down and as little as $795 per month.

Considering that the cheapest homes are in $150,000 range, thats sounds like 102% financing with an Interest-only payment and it probably an adjustable interest rate too.

That sounds like a loan program they've been advertising for the past 4 years to people who can't afford a home in the first place? Since when did we start calling these people "everyday heroes"?

New Coin Purchase

I recently mentioned that I made $500 dollars last month from online advertising. Rather than use that money to expand or improve my lifestyle (also knows as "buying crap"), I decided to invest it in something that has intrinsic value.

The US Dollar has losing value over the past 2 years. Just today the Dollar index dropped to its lowest recorded value of 77 and I think its going to keep on dropping. Typically precious metals like Gold, Silver and Platinum do well in times of a weak currecny.

Why do I think the Dollar will continue to weaken?
Because the economy sucks and is being manipulated in wierd ways. To quote someone quoting the late Dr. Richebacher, a smart and wealthy economist,

"All this emphasis on statistics and calculations.," he went on, rapping his silver-handled cane on the table for emphasis, "without a proper theory, it is all nonsense. And your economists seem to have no theory at all.they just think they can manipulate the system in order to get whatever outcome they want. They think economic growth comes from consumer spending and that they can control consumer spending by adjusting lending rates. It is unbelievable that anyone takes this seriously. It is capital formation that really matters. A rich society is one with a great stock of capital. One that builds capital and puts it to work to create more capital. A rich society is not one where people consume. Just the opposite. It is not what is consumed that creates wealth; it is what is NOT consumed. Yet, all the Anglo-Saxons focus on motivating consumers to consume. And now they are consuming more than they make. I tell you, in 70 years of studying economics, I have never seen such nonsense."

And in order to "save the economy" the FED is going to cut the interest rates, which will increase inflation and weaken the dollar. Even the Governor of the Bank of England, Gov. King said yesterday that "If central banks cut interest rates in the current environment, they run the moral risk of rekindling speculative risk-seeking, i.e. supporting the very behavior that caused the current market crisis, namely the underestimation of risk."

A country's currency is an indicator of its economy. If the country has a good balance sheet, positive flow of funds, a good business plan, strong leadership the currency will be strong. Right now the US has none of those qualities.

Anyway, I spent the $500 on some silver coins. Regular readers already know I like buying gold and silver coins. I bought about a dozen each of the perth mint silver tigers, 1920s Peace silver dollars & 2007 silver eagles. They're beautiful coins, make good gifts and hopefully will continue to appreciate as the Dollar keeps losing value.

Are Recessions A Good Thing?

Today's post is a follow-up to yesterday's, Recession on the horizon?. Saving Diva asks if a recession is necessary for the economy? And Lazy Man isn't entirely convinced we'll see a recession.

I think a recession is a normal part of the business cycle. Messing with the business cycle in 2001 is what caused the huge housing bubble. When I say messing with the business cycle, I mean manipulating the interest rates to keep them artifically low and pumping the economy full of excess and easy liquidity (which is another way of saying cheap and easy-to-qualify-for loans).

Asset prices shot through the roof (i.e. houses, investments and businesses became insanely expensive to buy) and lending criteria dropped to historical record-breaking lows. (Did you hear about dogs getting credit cards?)

Americans stopped saving money because there wasn't any incentive to (with savings accounts yielding under 2%) and kept refinancing their homes to pay for new cars, vacations and home improvements.

If you've been reading the news, this has already come to an end.

Lax lending standards have caused a flight to safety and a global liquidity crunch. A few hedge funds that speculated in mortgage-backed securities went under which sparked a slew of redemptions causing most hedge funds to sell off major holding and triggered a stock market meltdown.

With over 50 lenders going out of business this year, there have been a lot of layoffs, however the Federal Reserve has largely ignored these numbers. Today's unemployment numbers which were pretty dismal came as a shock to wall street (which leads me to think people actually believe the lies coming out of the Fed). The Bureau for Labor Statistics quietly revised July job growth number down to 68,000 from 95,000. That's a HUGE revision, don't you think?

Countrywide also announced 12,000 layoffs or 20% of their workforce. How exactly are they going to 'gain marketshare' when their market is atleast 25% smaller is beyond me.

Almost a year ago today, I posted an article from Businessweek, saying that "Shilling expects house prices to drop by at least 20%, which will cause a major recession".
There have been record foreclosures in the past few months, "driven by two factors heavy job losses in the Midwest states of Ohio, Michigan and Indiana and the collapse of previously booming housing markets in California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona.

The Midwest has been hit hard by a heavy loss of jobs in manufacturing, especially in autos and related industries".

Auto sales and retail sales are down sharply too.

The only positive aspect right now is that oil at the pump is pretty cheap. But this is an anomaly, since the cost of oil per barrel is near all times highs. Milk, and other basic food items have definitely become more expensive where I live (even the items at Carl's Jr, my favorite fast-food place).


I think we're already in a recession. It just won't be reported for another 6-8 months.

And now we consider if recession is a good thing? Frankly I don't know, but here's what an editor of a newsletter I subscribe to had to say.

When house prices come down, it sets off a whole chain reaction of
explosions – in the financial industry...the homebuilding
industry...the retail industry...and ultimately, even the
manufacturing sector! The result is recession...lower consumer
spending...lower asset prices...less speculation...more fear/less
greed.

Is that a bad thing?

"Sometimes it sounds as though you WANT stocks to crash...it sounds as
though you'd be happy if a recession were to hit," writes a concerned
Dear Reader. "Isn't that a little mean spirited?"

Yes, we would like to see a real crash on Wall Street. And yes, we
would like to see a real recession. Is that mean spirited? Not at all.
Au contraire, it comes from the deepest, most public-minded, most
generous impulses of our entire idealistic nature.

This boom is a fraud, we keep saying. The sooner it ends, the better.
It is a fraud because it is not based – at least not in America – on
greater output, capital formation or wealth creation. Instead, it is a
wealth destroying boom...one that rests on consumption, speculation
and debt. Speculators and Wall Street itself get rich. But most people
merely go deeper in debt...and become poorer.

What's worse, the longer this humbug boom goes on, the more popular
attitudes and habits are shaped by it. "Prices always go up," say the
lumpen, "so buy now." "You can't go wrong in stocks and real estate,"
say the turnips. "A nice young man just offered to refinance our
house," say the homeowners. "Don't worry...Ben Bernanke is not going
to let us lose money," say the speculators. "Deficits don't matter,"
says the Vice President.

Corrections, like revolutions, confessions and forest fires, are
unpleasant. But they are often necessary. They clear away the dead
wood.

Recession On The Horizon?

Despite what Bush & Bernanke say to reassure us that the economy is doing well, I don't believe it is. Here are some news stories that support this belief.

The first is from Newsweek.

Because home sales and moves stimulate purchases of appliances, electronics and furniture, the giant chains that catered to house flippers and renovators have reported recession-like results. In the second quarter, same-store sales were down 5.2 percent at Home Depot and 4.3 percent at Sears.

Americans who were living high by taking out home-equity loans during the boom have watched their equity drop, and are now faint of heart when it comes to big-ticket discretionary purchases.

The National Marine Manufacturers Association said it expects pleasure-boat sales, down 6 percent in 2006, to fall 10 percent more in 2007, largely due to the housing woes. Boatarama in Ft. Lauderdale, Fla., had to consolidate from four locations to one, and it now sells only used boats.

Brunswick Corp., which makes Sea Ray boats, said in July that it was slashing production due to the housing situation "in Florida and California, which are two of the nation's largest boating markets."

And this snippet from Bloomberg.com which basically says food is going to get more expensive.

Wheat rose the maximum allowed by the Chicago Board of Trade on rising
purchases of the grain by India, the second-biggest consumer, and forecasts for a drop in global supplies to their lowest in 26 years.

Global supplies are expected to decline to 114.8 million metric tons by the end of the marketing year May 31, 2008, the lowest since 1982, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said last month. Unusual weather has hurt crops in several regions, including Europe, the U.S., Canada and Australia.

I had previously voiced my concern over whether we were going to go through an inflationary period or a recession. Looks like we're now scheduled to have both!

American's Better Off Than Ever Before? Yeah Right!

Prof. Perry of economics at the school of Management, University of Michigan has an interesting blog on economics called Carpe Diem, which roughly translated means seize the day. In a recent post, he claims "that despite what many people think, our standard of living is higher now than ever before".

The evidence he cites is that we're spending less on food, clothing and shelter than in 1901, and we're spending less than citizens of "developing countries" like India or China.

We might have a better standard of living than someone in India, a country where nearly 30% of the population currently lives in poverty. Thats nearly 400 million people or MORE than the US's entire population!!!! How is that comparison relevant? Don't we measure up to the Canadians, British, French, Swiss, Australian, German or Japanese that we have to resort to comparing ourselves to countries that were either socialist or communist-dictatorships for the past several decades. (Incidentally, India has the only democratically elected communist-party in the world).

Also, I would be highly skeptical of anything the Federal Reserve publishes. Their assertion that the average person spends 18% of their income of housing sounds too small. I think the average person in the US spends about 25-30% on housing (although houses have become bigger and much more comfortable from 1901!).

And another factor to consider is that the average family had only 1 working member in 1901 - the male head of household.

Today you have most family with 2 income earners. So two people are now working, but they're not living twice as well.

That doesn't sound like an improvement to me.

However, I do agree on thing, we most undoubted have a better standard of living of anyone who lived in 1901, even maybe robber barons. But I don't think we're living better than ever before.

I think the late 1950s was when Americans were the richest. That was when we had a lot of manufacturing jobs and the government wasn't wasting money on fighting wars in remote places. And the dollar was backed by a precious metal, not just an empty promise.

Its Official: Hell Freezes Over

Last week, hell froze. The Financial Times reports:

In a rare unplanned investor call, the bank revealed that a flagship global equity fund had lost over 30 per cent of its value in a week because of problems with its trading strategies created by computer models. In particular, the computers had failed to foresee recent market movements to such a degree that they labeled them a ‘25-standard deviation event’ - something that only happens once every 100,000 years or more.

"We are seeing things that were 25-standard deviation events, several days in a row," said David Viniar, Goldman’s chief financial officer.

Losses in the Goldman fund could go over $1.5 billion. But heck, everyone makes mistakes. And even a great mathematician such as James Simons, founder of Renaissance Technologies, takes a loss from time to time. Simons used to do math for the Pentagon. Then, he discovered that he could make billions running a math-based hedge fund. But last week, Simons was forced to write a letter to his investors. His fund lost about 9% in the first few days of August...and now Simons says, “we cannot predict the duration of the current environment.

So apparently, math whizzes find they don't know which way the market is going, despite all their fany financial modeling and risk calculation and mitigation through the use of derivates.

No matter what kind of math you do, sometimes things take you by surprise.

According to Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s latest best seller, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable , improbable events with infinitely small odds of occurrance seem to occur every so often, especially in the financial markets. And with disastrous results!

And if this wasn't enough, Sentinel Management Group, with $1.6 Billion under "management" has frozen access to Money Market Accounts!
According to the Chicago Tribune,

"If you attempt to withdraw money from Sentinel, they will tell you they will not honor that request," said lawyer Jeffrey Barclay, who represents some of the futures brokers and investment pools whose money is frozen at Sentinel.

With $1.6 billion under management, Sentinel had advertised itself as an ultrasafe cash manager for people in the futures industry, corporate treasurers and well-to-do individuals.

Now the company is saying nothing publicly and has taken down its Web site. "We are not taking any media calls," said a person who answered the phone at Sentinel on Wednesday.

What is the world coming too?

Related Readings:

1. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

2. Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

3. When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management

Is The US On The Verge Of Collapse?

According to the Financial Times.

The U.S. government is on a burning platform of unsustainable policies, and practices with fiscal deficits, chronic health care underfunding, immigration and overseas military commitments threatening a crisis if action is not taken soon.

David Walker, comptroller general of the U.S.,issued the unusually downbeat assessment of his country’s future in a report that lays out what he called chilling long-term simulations. These include dramatic tax rises, slashed government services and the large-scale dumping by foreign governments of holdings of U.S. debt.

Drawing parallels with the end of the Roman empire, Mr. Walker warned there were striking similarities between America’s current situation and the factors that brought down Rome, including declining moral values and political civility at home, an overconfident and overextended military in foreign lands and fiscal irresponsibility by the central government.

Very chilling indeed!

Before you start thinking that David Walker is some crackpot lunatic, here's his bio straight off the US Government Accountability Office website.

As Comptroller General, Mr. Walker is the nation's chief accountability officer and head of the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), a legislative branch agency founded in 1921. GAO's mission is to help improve the performance and assure the accountability of the federal government for the benefit of the American people. Over the years, GAO has earned a reputation for professional, objective, fact-based, and nonpartisan reviews of government issues and operations.

Related Readings:

1. Empire of Debt: The Rise of an Epic Financial Crisis

2. The Coming Collapse of the Dollar and How to Profit from It: Make a Fortune by Investing in Gold and Other Hard Assets