How To Pay Off Your House In 3 Years!

Previously, I had complained about the content in CNN's Money's Millionaires in the Making. Its always a rehash of rich people who're saving their extra money and are going to be rich.

Well after some research I think I've found something thats a whole lot better - but it comes from Canada!


How we paid off our house in three years
Perry Goertzen as told to Duncan Hood
From the May 2006 issue of MoneySense magazine

Have you ever wondered what you could accomplish if you saved 80% of your pay? Well I can tell you, because I did it.

Most people have trouble saving just 5% or 10% of what they make, but my wife Tiffany and I decided that it was worth living like paupers for a few years if it could give us a huge jump start on life. Saving as much as we did was challenging, but what we accomplished was amazing — I still can't believe it myself sometimes. When we started, we had a rusty old Toyota Tercel, no house, few possessions and a crushing debt of $37,000. A few years later, we had two almost-new cars and a beautiful new four-bedroom house on a 46-ft lot in Milton, Ont. Everything was completely paid off — we had zero debt. During this time, neither of us made much more than $60,000 a year at any one job, but by working several jobs and saving almost all of our income, our net worth increased from negative $37,000 to positive $420,000 in less than five years.

I was born in rural Manitoba in my grandparents' car on Mother's Day, and my family still jokes that I came into this world fast and I haven't slowed down since. But though I was always very energetic, it was channeled in the wrong direction during my teenage years: I was basically a juvenile delinquent. I quit high school at age 15, worked odd jobs, drank and partied. By my early 20s I hit rock bottom. I realized that I was going nowhere and that I had to make some serious changes to get back on track. So I gave up my old friends and my old lifestyle, and decided to move to Abbotsford, B.C., to start over.

It was there that I met my future wife, Tiffany. After a couple of years we got engaged and then we got married in 1995, when I was 27. During this time I changed dramatically. I started volunteering for an organization that worked with troubled teens, and I loved the work. Tiffany and my family kept challenging me to go back to school, and shortly before we got married, I applied to a private Christian university in Langley, B.C., called Trinity Western, and I was accepted as an adult student. Four years later, in 1998, I graduated with a B.A. in psychology.

I was proud of my degree, but a B.A. didn't open as many doors as I originally thought it would, so we decided that I should get a Master of Social Work degree. Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, Ont., offers one of the better programs in Canada, so we packed up our belongings and drove across the country. It was an absolutely crazy trip — we did it in only 49 hours with one four-hour stop at a little motel — and when we arrived we settled into a small apartment in Milton, midway between the university and a new teaching job we found for my wife. During the next two years of schooling, money was tight, and I had to borrow heavily for tuition and books. When I finally finished my master's degree in 2000, we had a total debt of $52,000 from my student loans.

This is when we made the decision that changed everything. With my new degree, I quickly found a job that paid well, but we decided that rather than rewarding ourselves for all those years of hard work, we would continue living like impoverished students for a few more years. In exchange, we figured we'd get a head start on the rest of our lives.

I got my first job as a crisis intervention worker before I even finished my degree. When I graduated, they gave me more hours, then offered me a second position doing the same thing at another location. I was just loving the work, and I took on a third job doing the same thing at the Credit Valley Hospital in Mississauga. As crazy as it sounds, I then took on a fourth position, and I saw clients now and then through my own counseling business as well.

The next few years are a bit of a blur. I worked an average of 90 to 100 hours a week, or about 14 hours a day, seven days a week. It wasn't unusual to work 22 hours straight, go home, sleep for two or three hours, get up, shower, and work another 12-hour shift. I once worked 99 days in a row, took two days off, and then worked another 60 days. Meanwhile, Tiffany began supplementing her salary as a teacher by tutoring and giving piano lessons.

In some ways it wasn't much of a life. My wife thought I was pushing it too much, and our friends and family thought we had lost perspective. But my father had taught me a strong work ethic and I felt like I had wasted a lot of years in my youth. This was my chance to catch up. With six or seven jobs between the two of us, within a few months of graduating, our combined income was well in excess of six figures. But even with our sizable new income, we continued living in our $900-a-month apartment in Milton. Most of our furniture came out of the garbage, and we rarely bought new clothes. We didn't have cable and we didn't go out much. Eventually, we splurged and bought a set of rabbit ears for our old TV.

We were able to save over 80% of our after-tax income, which amounted to over $80,000 a year. In a lot of ways, saving 80% of your income is absurd, but you would be amazed at how quickly you can pay off huge loans if you do. I obtained some loan remission from the government, which knocked my $52,000 student debt down to $37,000, and we managed to pay that off in just four short months. Paying off such a staggering loan so quickly was an incredible feeling. We realized that we had become accustomed to saving most of our income, so we decided to accomplish a few more goals before we broke the habit. We began by saving up for a down payment on a house, and it took us less than a year to save up $82,000.

In June of 2002, we purchased our first home in a new subdivision in Milton for $302,000, and took on a five-year, 5.2% fixed-rate mortgage for $220,000. At first, we intended to pay it off in 10 or 15 years. But then I began to look at what would happen if I doubled up the payments and paid an extra 10% a year. It was incredibly motivating to see how much interest you could save. So we decided to double up every bi-weekly payment, from $670 to $1,340. We also made the annual 10% prepayment, which was about $22,000 a year.

At the end of the first year, we realized that we were saving much more than we needed, even with the doubled payments and annual prepayment, so I approached the bank and asked them if we could make an annual prepayment of 20% instead. It took a little bit of coaxing and a few Tim Hortons coffees, but banks can be more flexible than you might think: don't assume the terms of your mortgage can't be changed.
Click here to continue reading the story

Dollar May Weaken

I regularly read the 'Daily Pfenning' by Charles Butler of Everbank.com.

Today's issue was especially bearish on the dollar.

The Yen finally started to move back up hitting a one month high over the weekend on speculation the Bank of Japan report tomorrow will show an improved economic outlook. The BOJ will make their rate announcement tomorrow before releasing a semi-annual report that will outline the bank's forecasts for prices and the economy. Any hint at higher rates before year end should propel the yen back toward 110.

Other Asian currencies gained last week also, with the Thai baht rising to a seven-year high. Thailand's central bank raised its growth estimate for next year to between 4.5 percent and 5.5 percent from a previous forecast of between 4 and 5.3%. It also lifted its prediction for export growth this year. While the gains in the Singapore $ were met with possible intervention by their central bank, the Bank of Thailand governor said the central bank would let the markets do their job in stemming the rise. So it looks like we have a green light for further increases in the baht.

The Australian dollar also had a good week with several reports showing the Asia-Pacific regions growth is picking up. Retail sales rose .5 percent after climbing .3% in August, and building approvals started to rise again. Australia's economy added more than 200,000 new jobs in the past five months, sending the unemployment rate to a 30-year low. Things continue to look up for the Australian dollar, a currency which continues to be one of our favorite.

Finally, India's central bank will likely raise interest rates for a fourth time this year as record economic expansion and loans growth stoke inflation. Expect a quarter point increase in interest rates tomorrow, which should strengthen the rupee. Many reports are now expecting the Rupee to strengthen to 44 by year end.

As previously mentioned, I bought some Australian Dollars and a Japanese REIT. A strengthening of the Yen will boost the value of my REIT, which buys apartment buildings in downtown Toyko.

I'm willing to share the info on the Japanese REIT with anyone who makes 10 posts on The Weekend Investor. Talk about a shameless plug!!!!

Gold was also up today. Its not too late to buy some and hedge against the devaluing dollar!

Invest In Porn!

While reading the recent issue of Business 2.0, I came across an interesting article on investing in the Porn Industry. Apparently there's this company called Adultvest that puts investors and porn industry businesses/people together. Kind of like Prosper !!!

I decided to check it out. Its a very fancy website [after all, porn sites are cutting edge in terms of web technology] and it lets you sign up depending on whether you're an investor or you need funding for your Adult entertainment business.

I signed up as an investor, and they promised to send me investment opportunites.
Lets see what I get. I'll post when I get something.

Only accredited investors are allowed to sign up but that easily achieved. Just say yes to the questions on whether you're accredited and suddenly you are!!!!!

Check it out. The site is totally Safe For Work. There's no adult content on it.

Anway, I got a kick out of their ad banners.

Here are some of my favorites!

Check out the bull's shadow.

Click here to go to adultvest.com!

The porn industry makes a ton of money. I used to work for a company that was bought by Akamai Technologies. We used to provide content distribution for porn companies[and also CNN and Yahoo]. We had a saying, "Porn built the Internet". They make a ton of money!

Click here to go to adultvest.com!

An explanation of how it works. I think its a neat concept.

Click here to go to adultvest.com!

And my favorite...this one cuts straight to the chase!!!

Click here to go to adultvest.com!

What do you guys think of investing in porn? I personally don't care. It called diversification!! ;-)

Maybe it'll even become mainstream some day. "Oil and gas investments aren't exciting enough for you? You need some excitement in your portfolio - invest in the Adult Entertainment industry!!!"

Not to mention its yet another way to deduct your adult entertainment subscriptions on your taxes! It really will qualify as research.

More Free Trades At TDAmeritrade

I recently realized I had a few thousand dollars worth of stock bought on margin in my trading account. The brokerage is charging me over 9.5% interest on that money!!! In the meanwhile, I had money lying in my bank account at less than 1%. I quickly transferred the money into my brokerage account.

I also sent an email to customer report saying that I had opened a new account with $2k in it, I would've gotten 10 free trades. Since I was transferring more than that into my account, I'd really really appreciate it if they could comp me a few free trades. I wasn't expecting them to but they almost immediately comped me 10 free trades. Thats a hundred bucks right there!

While they're a lot more expensive than Interactive Brokers, their service is far better!

Left Behind Games

I recently read an email about how Left Behind Games[ticker LFBG.OB] was one of the next hottest gaming companies in town.

The email said it qualified on Chuck Jaffe's stupid investment of the week but went on to refute that claim stating its a christian based family game and based on the number of books sold under the same title, it should do pretty well. At the time it was trading at $5.20. Since then its up 40%.

Yes, thats 40% in 5 days!!! While I didn't buy any and don't plan to chase it either, I have been following it with interest. Why is the stock going up on relatively no news??
Yes, its getting a lot of media coverage but the company isn't releasing any news.[a product soon, but thats been known for a while] It kind of reminds me of the tech bubble days.

The email got sent out to probably around 100,000 investors.[my estimate of the circulation based on indirect data from the sender.] If only 5% or 5,000 people bought $1000 worth of stock, thats $5 million worth of stock, or about 5 million shares[or 40% less depending on when they bought it]. The average volume is about 30,000 shares, but in the past week its been over 100,000 per day. Thats half a million dollars worth of stock every day!!!

So did the email cause the stock to go up or was it other reasons??? Not that I care either way, but if I can find out definitely, I can definitely take advantage of such emails in future!!!

Lets see how it plays out in the next few weeks. After the readers stop buying will it fall back to $5 or does it still have some real strength.

Home Prices Fall 9.7%: An Explanation

Rather than paraphrase the explanations and pretend I'm intelligent, I'll just paste them below.

These were taken from today's Wall Street Journal.
U.S. new-home sales jumped unexpectedly in September by 5.3%, but prices were lower. The average price of a new home decreased to $293,200 in September, from $314,000 in August and $299,600 in September 2005, according to Commerce. The median price fell 9.7% last month, to $217,100 from $240,400 a year earlier, representing the sharpest drop since December 1970. The August 2006 median sales price was $239,300. Meanwhile, new-home inventories receded in September. Economists comment on the drop in price and what it means for the future of the market.
* * *

The newspaper headlines will blare that new-home prices fell by 9.7% year over year, the largest drop since 1970. Admittedly, this is a shocking headline, but do not make too much of it. First, as we have noted many times, the mix changes every month so that these price numbers do not pertain to a comparable mix of homes over time. If people are scaling back their desires, if the regional mix changes, etc., then the numbers get skewed. Moreover, the new-home side of the equation should be the most volatile, because the inventories of new homes all have to get sold quickly (whereas homeowners can simply take their existing homes off the market for a while when market conditions ease). It is easy to imagine a world in which new-home prices fall by 5% or 10% and the average of all home prices are steady or even somewhat higher. We will wait for the Ofheo figures to get a better read on overall home prices. In any case, the faster new-home prices fall, the quicker those inventories are going to get sold and the faster we can get past this housing correction. --Stephen Stanley, RBS Greenwich Capital

The median new home price fell by 1.7% [in the third quarter] across the nation. However, the median sales price rose in each of the major geographic regions (Northeast +19.3%, Midwest +4.0%, South +0.7%, West +1.6%), which suggests that some of the home price decline is due to a shift in the regional pattern of sales toward lower-priced regions. --Bear Stearns Economics
* * *

The really startling number in this report is the 9.7% plunge in median prices compared to a year ago. No doubt a good part of this drop reflects an increase in the number of smaller homes in the sample, which is not adjusted to take account of changes in the mix of homes sold from month-to-month. Still, mean prices also slumped, to -2.1% from +6.4% in August, so we think there probably has been a serious drop in prices per square foot. --Ian Shepherson, High Frequency Economics

Millionaires in the Making

CNN has a monthly feature titled "Millionaires in the Making". Every month, they feature a young couple who make over $120,000/yr and have 'amassed' a nice nest egg, usually between $250,000 and $500,000 in just 4-8 years after graduating from college.

Yeah, gimme a frickin break!!!!

Any moron who makes over $100k/yr and bought a house more than 3 years ago and is contributing 10% salary to the 401k plan is worth over $100k now.

The last issue was no different. The Johnsons make $147,000 a year, put 10% into a 401k and have $120,000 in home equity. The only thing worth mentioning in the story is that the husband stopped wasting money on a new car every 2 years!!! Otherwise its almost the same frickin story every month!

They should atleast give some more info on what they like to invest in or something to change the story.

On Going Naked

In a previous post on WCI, I had mentioned that I had sold some March 2007 Calls.

When you sell a call and you own the underlying stock, its called selling (or writing) covered calls. In my case, where I don't own the underlying stock, its called selling naked calls. I gave someone the right to purchase a stock from me at a certain price at a certain date in the future and in return I collected a small premium. [That's right, I don't own the stock yet I sold the option on it and collected some money. Makes me feel like I'm in the insurance biz!]

There is unlimited risk in selling naked calls (or puts). If the stock rises beyond my strike price [which is $17.50 in the case of WCI] I stand to lose the amount that it rises minus 17.50 minus the premium I collected up front.

When I entered the position last Friday, the stock was trading around $15. So it would have to jump 16.5% before being "in-the-money". I collected a premium of $1.45 per share or $145 per contract. So the stock would have to be over $18.95 before I would start losing money. If the stock closes below $17.50 on expiration, the option expires worthless and I keep all the collected premium. If however it closes at say $18, then I don't have to buy the stock at $18 and deliver it to the buyer. I just close the position before then and pay him the difference of $0.50 per share or $50 per contract. So even though the stock closed above $17.50, I'd still make $145-$50 = $95 per contract.

There are also commissions to be factored in. Interactive Brokers is amongst the cheapest[and most difficult to use] and charges $0.75 per contract.

The stock was down 4.5% today on no news so hopefully it'll continue its slide into BK. The puts I had bought last month are now up 22%!!! The calls I sold on Friday have decreased in value and if I wanted to, I could close my position by buying them back at $1.25 per share or a 13.75% profit per contract.

I also sold some naked puts on a junior mining stock. I think it might move higher in the near future, however I don't have any money to invest right now, and I'm not a big fan of buying on margin. Its trading at $11.25/share so buying 500 shares would run me around $5625. So I sold some puts with the Nov 06 expiration at $10 strike price and collected $35 per contract. The options expire in about 3 weeks. If the stock does nothing, I keep the premium. If it goes up, I still made my premium on them. If it drops, it would have to drop nearly 14% before I start losing money. But I was willing to buy them at this price anyway, so at least I curtailed my loss upfront!

[NOTE] Naked Option trading involves significant risk of capital. Victor Niederhoffer, a UC, Berkley professor and hedge fund manager lost 20 years worth of profits in 1 year through over-leveraging in naked option trades. Only gamble with risk capital when selling naked options. This is an extreme form of gambling. Do not take it lightly!

WCI Gets Smacked Down!

Basswood Partners, a hedge fund sent a letter to WCI asking for representation on the board. Its owns about 5% of WCI stock.

"Since becoming a public company almost five years ago, WCI Communities has failed to capitalize on the dramatic growth and profitability expansion experienced by the public homebuilding industry. As of October 13th 2006, WCI Communities's stock trades -16.5% below its March 2002 IPO price, while its peer group (as defined by the Company in its 2005 proxy statement) is up 88.9% over the same period. This extreme underperformance is due to management's operating results and strategy," Bennett Lindenbaum, principal of Basswood wrote.

"We urge WCI Communities's board of directors to take decisive action to prevent any further loss of shareholder value and to maximize the value of the Company," Lindenbaum continued. "WCI Communities's stock is trading at a significant discount to its intrinsic value, especially given its large inventory of entitled land in coastal Florida purchased prior to 2000. WCI Communities and its shareholders would realize this value by selling for a premium to a larger, better capitalized and more profitable homebuilding company."


Looks like an awful lot of negative sentiment surrounding homebuilding stocks. Whenever the market gets too bearish, it has the opposite affect on a stock. Hope this doesn't rub off on WCI and push the stock up!!! I just sold some March out-of-the-money calls on WCI to supplement the puts I had already bought.

Just in case you're new to options, buying a put or selling an out-of-the-money call is a bearish bet. You're betting the stock will go down. In a put you pay a premium and you make money if the stock goes down. When you sell a call, you hope the stock doesn't go up and you get to keep the premium you collected up front.

Guess I was wrong!

I was wrong about the price of gas rising after OPEC announced a production cut. The market decided that the OPEC members were just going to keep pumping oil and ignore the cut. Oil sank on the news. Luckily for me I was able to buy my lousy dozen shares of PetroChina [PTR] for under $110/share. I'm buying in my Roth IRA so I really had to make sure I paid less than $110. Even a 10 cent jump in the price would've meant I would've had to buy 1 less share.

I like PTR because
1. Its an oil stock and I think it'll do well
2. It pays a dividend of 4.70%
3. It's a canadian company dealing in China, so its also a hedge against the dollar.[that works both ways!!!]
4. If its good enough for Warren Buffett, it sure is good enough for me!!!

Along with Oil, natural gas prices were also down today, at $7.07 - quite a jump from the lows 3 weeks ago!

Got My Japanese REITs

Finally managed to buy the Japanese REITs yesterday. The Tokyo Stock Exchange is about 14-16 hours ahead so you have to submit it and check on it later to see if you got lucky.

I'm betting that the Yen will appreciate 20% against the US Dollar[although as moominvalley pointed out, I bought it with Australian dollars!] and that the stagnant Tokyo RE market will pick up.

On another note, the $50 amazon gift card give-away for posting on The Weekend Investor forums doesn't seem to be taking off. I might have to put up another prize to maybe give away a ~100 year old Morgan Silver Dollar to the person with the highest posts! [login to the weekend investor and let me know if you think you need more motivation!]

Got My Japanese REITs

Finally managed to buy the Japanese REITs yesterday. The Tokyo Stock Exchange is about 14-16 hours ahead so you have to submit it and check on it later to see if you got lucky.

I'm betting that the Yen will appreciate 20% against the US Dollar[although as moominvalley pointed out, I bought it with Australian dollars!] and that the stagnant Tokyo RE market will pick up.

On another note, the $50 amazon gift card give-away for posting on The Weekend Investor forums doesn't seem to be taking off. I might have to put up another prize to maybe give away a ~100 year old Morgan Silver Dollar to the person with the highest posts! [login to the weekend investor and let me know if you think you need more motivation!]

OPEC Cuts Output

Christian at InvestorGeeks.com thinks that Oil will stay in the $50-$60 range for a while and that the Dollar won't continue it slide.

Opec just reported that its cutting production by 1.2 million barrels a day. This will definitely push the price of oil upwards.

No one knows where the price of oil or gas will go, but global demand will eventually push it upwards. The Energy Department isn't promoting any alternative energy research so I don't know where he think the alternative energy to substitute oil will come from.

I'm betting on oil prices going up and I don't think pushing the price to $75/bbl will push our economy into recession. They might blame the coming recession on oil, but I doubt thats the main reason.

Damn, I was supposed to buy some PTR but I don't think I'll be able to get in under $110 anymore! I also tried selling puts on a silver mine but I guess I was asking for too much premium [considering that silver crossed $12/oz today]

Are Timeshares A Scam?

Thanks to Lazy Man, I've been reminded to write on whether Timeshares are a good investment or not.

Some of the reasons the Timeshare companies give are
1. Its a good investment. If you get title to the property as a fractional owner, you get all the tax deductions of home ownership.
2. The cost of your vacations never goes up. So you beat inflation.
3. You can exchange you timeshare with other people in different parts of the world and live for free whenever you go on vacation.

On the surface it sounds really good. A while ago I had the misfortune of being conned into attending one of these in Vegas in exchange for some free show tickets. The reason they can afford to hand out $200 worth of free tix is because they use high-pressure tactics to persuade you to buy an overpriced condo.

Lets do the math...

They wanted $35,000 for a 1 week rental of a bedroom condo. So basically they took a $300,000 condo and sold it for $35,000 x 52 weeks = $1.825 million!!!!

Plus you pay an annual $850 "maintenance" fee. That doesn't sound like putting a cap on the cost of my future vacations, since this maintenance fee will go up with inflation.

Also, in order to exchange you timeshare with other timeshare owners you needed to subscribe to a service that charges around $185/year. Out of kindness, this fee was waived for the first year and I would get 2 round trip tickets to anywhere in the world plus a 7 day fully paid for vacation to Cancun.

Hmmm....if I invest the $35,000 at 8%, thats $2800. Add $850+$185 to that and I get $3835. I don't think I've ever spent that much money for living accomodations on a 2 week trip anywhere in the world. Granted, I didn't stay in 5 star hotels, but I'm pretty sure you can rent a condo for about $1,000/week anywhere in the world in peak season. And if you can get more than 8% return on your investments, you're losing even more money.

I think its a big scam. The presentation I went to was offered by the Hilton. They had 4 huge towers on a tiny postage stamp of a lot. I think there were probably 400 condos on 1 block of land. Thats like selling 1 building for around $720 million!!!! DAMN, I need to get into business!

Update:

Buying timeshares from the resale market can be a lot more cost-effective. You can buy cheap timeshares for less than 25% of the original cost from the original buyers and at that point it often makes sense. Check out this link for discounted timeshares.

Incidentally, you can get great deals on real estate on that link. There are listings for land & homes for under $5,000! It doesn't get any cheaper than that.

Why the Dollar Will Collapse!

A few days ago I posted an article on why the dollar hasn't collapsed. Robert Kiyosaki has a good counter-argument on why he thinks it will.

The Last Days of the Dollar

by Robert Kiyosaki

Tuesday, October 17, 2006

In 1966, I was traveling the Pacific aboard a freighter. I was 19 years old at the time and attending the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy at Kings Point, N.Y.

As part of my academy education, I spent a year as a student officer on freighters, passenger liners, oil tankers, and even tugboats. It was a great way to see and study the world.

An Instructive Exchange

One of the earliest lessons I learned at sea was about currency exchange rates. Even though currency valuation was not a subject taught at the Merchant Marine academy, my ship constantly traveled from one country to the next, so my education in what is today called FX -- or foreign exchange -- began.

Back then, the formal exchange rate in the banks was 360 Japanese yen to one U.S. dollar. On the black market in Hong Kong, I could get 366 yen to the dollar.

This made me aware of the games banks and countries play with their currencies: In 1966, the six-yen difference told me that Japan was buying more from Hong Kong, which is why yen was cheaper in the then-British colony.

A six-yen difference might not seem like much, but for a student earning just $105 a month every little bit counts. So I would wait for my ship to stop in Hong Kong and then trade U.S. dollars for yen. Then I would travel back to Japan and go shopping with the yen. Although the money I saved wasn't substantial, the lessons it offered in currency exchange were priceless.

The End of the Golden Age

It was pretty easy to understand foreign exchange back in the mid-‘60s, since much of the world was following the Bretton Woods Agreement. Enacted in 1944, this agreement made the U.S. dollar the global medium of exchange.

Because the U.S. dollar was pegged to gold, figuring exchange rates was a cinch. If we purchased too much from Japan, then the Japanese could ask us for gold. If we had less gold, we had less money.

In 1971, President Richard Nixon changed everything by removing the U.S. dollar from the gold standard. Suddenly, the dollar was still the world's currency, but now it was backed by nothing. The United States was free to print as much money as it wanted, and the world went along.

Because of this change, understanding foreign exchange became a bit more complex. Today, to understand the world of currency, you need to think a little differently -- essentially because things don't make sense.

For example, today, the United States is perceived to be the richest country in the world. In reality, though, we're the biggest debtor nation in the world. And who are we indebted to? What many consider to be a Third World country: China.

For Richer and Poorer

The irony is that many Americans think we're rich and China is poor. Exactly the opposite is true. This is because the removal of gold's backing from paper money has created a virtual explosion in credit and liquidity. The sheer amount of liquidity around the globe is incalculable.

This excess funny money causes people to feel rich and almost everything to be more expensive. Today, stocks, real estate, automobiles, and gasoline become more expensive as the dollar becomes cheaper.

While some people do become richer in this system, funny money actually punishes working people who save money. It devalues the value of your work and your savings, even though you may feel wealthier.

In overly simplistic terms, China and many countries in the world today lend us billions of dollars to buy their goods. They send us products like computers, televisions, cars, candies, and wines, and we send them funny money in return.

Since they can't spend those dollars at home, they simply lend them back to us so we'll buy more of their products. That would be like me going to my local grocery store and asking them for a loan so I could buy their tomatoes. A logical person would say, "That makes no sense." Yet it's exactly what happened after 1971, and to many highly educated people -- bankers and politicians, for instance -- it somehow does make sense.

An Uneven Trade

You can find current smaller examples of such financial insanity. For example, many people refinance their homes to pay off their credit cards. This makes no sense; you and I know that someday that debt will have to be paid.

Yet getting deeper into debt does make sense as long as you can repay your lender with cheaper dollars, and as long as your lender is willing to take those cheaper, less-valuable dollars. To use my earlier analogy, it would be like buying an orange for $1 on credit and then paying him back for it a year later with 80 cents. As long as the grocer is happy with this arrangement, things are fine.

In real-world terms, one of the reasons the U.S. dollar only buys approximately 110 yen instead of 360 yen today is because the Japanese allowed us to continually devalue the dollar -- that is, to pay our debts with cheaper dollars.

Over the years, the yen got stronger and the dollar got weaker simply because we, as a nation, printed more and more money, all the while consuming more and producing less. Japan would lend us money and we would buy their products. Japan's economy boomed, and so did ours.

Game Over?

The problem today is that China isn't willing to play the game the way the Japanese did. If we drop the purchasing power of the dollar, the Chinese, by pegging their currency to the dollar, also drop the value of their currency. The United States then pays back its debt with a cheaper dollar.

The irony is that we accuse China of playing games with their money. It's more honest to say that China just isn't willing to play the game we want to play.

But an even bigger problem is looming: It seems like the rest of the world is less willing to play our money game. That's why the European Union introduced the Euro. If China creates an Asian equivalent of the Euro (which, admittedly, is a long shot) then the U.S. dollar could be in real trouble.

If the oil-producing nations stop accepting the dollar and switch to gold or the Euro, things will definitely get sticky. The world might be tipped into a global recession and possibly even a depression.

For now, though, this funny money game continues. How long will it last? I don't know. I do know that throughout history, all paper money has eventually come back to its true value, which is zero. That's when the game truly ends, and a whole new cycle of pass the buck begins.


Investing In Japanese Real Estate

In a previous post I had mentioned that a Japanese REIT was going IPO. I was wondering how I could get in on the action. It seems like a good idea - the Dollar should weaken against the Yen and Japan's Real Estate should appreciate after almost a decade and a half of stagnation.

It seems its rather more difficult than it is in the US. Unless you buying a stock that trades as an ADR, you need to open an account that allows you to purchase stocks on a foreign exchange. Luckily I had already an account with Interactive Brokers to buy Australian dollars which allows me to trade on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Unfortunately, there's a 13 hour time difference and so the trades have to be placed in the evenings. Also its a little bit trickier than placing trades through a US online-trader and there's no phone support [although there is online chatting] and the Tokyo Stock Exchange doesn't really provide much information about the individual stocks.

Anyway, here's a list of Japanese REITs that trade on the TSE. You'll notice that they have codes instead of ticker symbols. Also their prices are listed in Yen which is currently around 118 yen to the US dollar but that fluctuates minute by minute!

Good luck!


3229 / JP3046460006 Nippon Commercial Investment Corporation.
3227 / JP3046450007 MID REIT, Inc.
3226 / JP3046440008 Nippon Accommodations Fund Inc.
8963 / JP3046190009 TGR Investment Inc.
8987 / JP3046420000 Japan Excellent, Inc.
8986 / JP3046410001 re-plus residential investment inc.
8985 / JP3046400002 Nippon Hotel Fund Investment Corporation
8980 / JP3046350009 LCP Investment Corporation
8984 / JP3046390005 BLife Investment Corporation
8983 / JP3046380006 Creed Office Investment Corporation
8982 / JP3046370007 Top REIT, Inc.
8981 / JP3046360008 Japan Hotel and Resort, Inc.
8978 / JP3046330001 Advance Residence Investment Corporation
8977 / JP3046320002 Hankyu REIT, Inc.
8976 / JP3046310003 DA Office Investment Corporation
8975 / JP3046300004 FC Residential Investment Corporation
8974 / JP3046290007 eASSET Investment Corporation
8973 / JP3046280008 Joint Reit Investment Corporation
8972 / JP3046270009 Kenedix Realty Investment Corporation
8970 / JP3046260000 Japan Single-residence REIT Inc.
8969 / JP3046250001 Prospect Residential Investment Corporation
8968 / JP3046240002 Fukuoka REIT Corporation
8967 / JP3046230003 Japan Logistics Fund, Inc.
8966 / JP3046220004 CRESCENDO Investment Corporation
8965 / JP3046210005 New City Residence Investment Corporation
8964 / JP3046200006 Frontier Real Estate Investment Corporation
8962 / JP3046180000 Nippon Residential Investment Corporation
8961 / JP3046170001 MORI TRUST Sogo Reit, Inc.
8960 / JP3045540006 United Urban Investment Corporation
8959 / JP3045530007 Nomura Real Estate Office Fund, Inc.
8958 / JP3044520009 Global One Real Estate Investment Corporation
8957 / JP3044510000 TOKYU REIT, Inc.
8956 / JP3041770003 Premier Investment Company
8955 / JP3040890000 Japan Prime Realty Investment Corporation
8954 / JP3040880001 ORIX JREIT Inc.
8953 / JP3039710003 Japan Retail Fund Investment Corporation
8952 / JP3027680002 Japan Real Estate Investment Corporation
8951 / JP3027670003 Nippon Building Fund Inc.

Why the Dollar Hasn't Already Collapsed

MSNBC has a good explanation on why the dollar is still holding up against the other currencies. Even though I'm bearish on the dollar for the next few years, its still a good read. I think the dollar will slide against a majority of foreign currencies including the yen and given that the Japanese real estate market has been flat for 15 years and only just picked up I think its a good time to get into the Japanese REIT market. But thats another post.

COMMENTARY
By John W. Schoen
Senior Producer
MSNBC

As the U.S. keeps adding billions to its trade deficit, and the government churns out billions more in Treasury debt, several readers are getting a little nervous about the value of the dollar. Just how come it's not falling?

What I'd really like to know is why the dollar isn't falling even faster: Given our status as the world's greatest debtor nation, what is holding it up? And ... why are people still pricing oil in dollars, rather than moving to a currency issued by a more solvent country, e.g. the yen, yuan or euro?
C. P. -- Houston, Texas

There are certainly plenty of economists out there who will tell you that the dollar is headed for a fall. If the rest of the world stops buying our IOUs, the Treasury Department would have to keep raising interest rates until it could find buyers. That could, in theory, throw the U.S. economy into tailspin.

But for all its vulnerability, the U.S. dollar is still the most powerful currency in the world. And one big reason is that the U.S. economy is still the largest and most resilient in the world.

China, though it is growing more rapidly than either Europe or the U.S., logged $8.9 trillion in 2005 GDP. But China only recently began to gently unhook the yuan’s “peg” to the dollar — it remains to be seen what will happen when that currency tries to stand on its own two feet. And while the Chinese economy is growing rapidly, it's not at all clear how long such rapid growth is sustainable. If they have a recession over there, it's going to be a doozy.

Globalization no doubt puts added strains on the greenback. But we’ve seen this movie before. In the mid-1980s, the great Asian economy was Japan. As its economy surged, the value of the dollar against the yen was cut in half from March 1985 to March 1988.

The yen surge touched off a wave of hand-wringing on U.S. editorial pages amid fears that the days of the American economic supremacy were numbered and the dollar would be knocked off its perch as the global currency of choice. With all those swollen yen, Japanese buyers began snapping up U.S. real estate. When Mitsubishi bought Manhattan's iconic Rockefeller Center in 1990, it seemed to some that the worst fears of the dollar's twilight were being confirmed.

Five years later, with Japan’s economy in shambles, Mitsubishi couldn’t make its payments and basically turned over the keys to the holder of the mortgage. Today, Japan is finally digging itself out of a depression that’s gone on for more than a decade.

True, a U.S. trade deficit now running at an annual rate of $776 billion, on track for a fifth straight record year, is troubling. But you can also view that trade deficit as a huge vote of confidence by the rest of the world — which is still willing to take our Treasury bills in payment for its goods. No one places near that much faith in the economies of Japan, Europe or China.

It’s also why oil traders still want to be paid in dollars when they sell their barrels. The surge in oil prices is a big reason the dollar has take a beating — and the trade deficit has swollen. And anything that pumps up inflation hurts the dollar because it erodes the purchasing power of every one in your pocket. But the recent slump in oil prices should help the dollar perk up.

U.S. gross domestic product — which is basically the value of all goods and services produced here — came to about $12.4 trillion in 2005, according to the CIA Factbook. (To arrive at that GDP number, you add up all spending by consumers, investors and government agencies — then add the value of exports and subtract the value of imports.) That represents about a fifth of the total worldwide. So one out of every five dollars in global economic value is created in the United States.

Total GDP for Europe was roughly the same ($12.2 trillion). But though it relies on a common currency, the European economy is nowhere near as unified as the U.S. — thanks to the 25 separate economic policies pursued by its member countries. And, as anyone who has tried to sell a product across Europe has learned the hard way, marketing in 20 different languages at once can get expensive.

Investors Bail On Condo Market in Florida

Apparently some builders are so desperate, they've started suing buyers who are walking away from their deposits. Several of my friends have received letters stating that the builder will be suing them for damages and for fraud. Of course, the builders are just shaking the tree trying to see if anyone will buckle and send them some money. They must be really hurting!!!!

I've been bearish on WCI [which builds condos in southern California} for several weeks now and RealEstateJournal.com has an article on it.
Investors Struggle With Aftermath Of Condo-Investing Fever

By Amy Hoak
From MarketWatch

People camped out for the chance to buy a unit in Radius, a condominium development in Hollywood, Fla. The building's 285 units sold out in just over 10 hours -- half a year before construction was even set to start.

But that was in the summer of 2004, when the red-hot condo market was peaking and money could be made by investing in condos expected to quickly appreciate. Units were often on the market for resale as soon as they were completed. It's a much riskier proposition to flip a condo in some of today's cooling markets. "You see some of these communities that investors purchased...there are no lights on at night," said Bill Donges, chief executive officer of Lane Company, developer of Radius, which is scheduled for completion in the spring.

The lack of post-dusk illumination in some South Florida condo communities is a sign that many buyers never planned to move into the units they bought, he said. Their plans now: sweat.

According to the National Association of Realtors, inventory of existing condos and co-op homes rose to about an 8.6-month supply in August. The national median sales price for the housing type settled at $223,200 in August, down 2.4% from $228,800 a year ago.

"The market is clearly oversupplied in many places," said David Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders. "The key symptom of that has been on the price front. Prices have taken a hit."

Not wonderful news for those who have invested in condominium units with the intent to sell them quickly -- and are still holding them. According to NAR data, 31% of investment purchases made between 2002 and 2005 were condos.

But it may not be time to jump off the condo's balcony just yet. There still are investors entering some markets with the intent of purchasing one or more units and holding them for a few years. Some are encouraged by increased demand for rentals in certain areas and betting that long-term appreciation won't skip a beat.

Seiders put it this way: "If you're in it for the (short-term) price appreciation then you want to get out," he said. "If you're an investor wanting to rent them over time, you don't necessarily want to get out of the investment."

Get out while the getting is good

Patience is a virtue not all condo investors have in abundance. The National Association of Home Builders is noticing increased reports of sale cancellations, meaning buyers are backing out before closing, Seiders said. "In that case, all you're losing is the deposit," he said.

In South Florida, Mark Zilbert has another way to help condo speculators in their hour of distress. Zilbert owns a real estate brokerage and also helps link up condo buyers and sellers through the Web site CondoFlip.com.

A new feature on the site is a slate of panic buttons for investors worried that they won't be able to unload their properties: One button for those who aim to sell their condos for a profit, another for those who are willing to break even and another for those who are willing to lose money in order to get out of the deal.

After sellers decide which camp they fit into, they can be connected with buyers interested in relieving them of their burdensome investment.

Of course, another highly publicized way of generating buyer interest without cutting the actual asking price is to offer incentives to sweeten the deal. Incentives can include in-unit amenities or the covering of closing costs.

Adjust your thinking -- and your financing

Investors who can afford to wait out the storm, however, could benefit in the long run.

"There are a lot of unique proprieties that would be a shame to sell out," Donges said. "In the long run, a lot of these properties are going to have value."

It's also important to note that conditions vary from market to market. For example, while the South Florida condo market may be iffy, conditions in some Texas markets are going strong, said Jim Fite, president of Century 21 Judge Fite Co., based in Dallas.

"We have a very robust environment for investors right now in all segments of the market," he said. Investors have shifted focus from places such as Phoenix and Las Vegas to some parts of Texas, where rental values are more attractive, he said.

Chicago has a "normal to healthy" investor market, said Chris Kenny, chief financial officer for Palladian Development. "The difference in this market -- it's not a flipping market," he said. Instead, investors will typically hold on to a property for about three years.

Those who do change their course to incorporate a hold strategy also might want to rethink their financing, said Lucy Duni, director of consumer education for TransUnion's credit-information site, TrueCredit.com. In the recent past, condo investors often took out 1-, 3- or 5-year adjustable rate mortgages because the intent was to make a big profit in the short term.

If the adjustable loan is about to reset, investors might want to think about locking down a fixed rate. "If they're in an ARM, it might be time to think about refinancing," Duni said.

Becoming a landlord

Investors going into hold mode may decide to rent their units as a way to cover costs. In markets with low apartment vacancies and increasing rents, the move is an especially attractive way to bide time.

"Because of the fact that the market is softening, a lot more people are making decisions to rent because they don't see themselves getting what they anticipated for the sale," said Patrick Roberts, a real estate agent with 773 Realty Inc. in Chicago.

Even some builders are taking note of the current rental fundamentals; Donges said Lane Company's focus is shifting back from condo building to apartment building.

But there's some work involved in being a landlord. The first hurdle: setting the rent.

A fair amount of owners know how to set an acceptable price, Roberts said, but others ask for a couple hundred dollars more than comparable properties in the area. Incorrect pricing causes the rental to sit vacant for months, resulting in lost cash flow.

Condo owners have to accept that they won't get all their mortgage payments, taxes and assessments covered in the rent, Roberts said.

There's also some effort required to find the best tenants, he said. Credit checks on potential tenants are wise, he said, and sometimes condo associations will require criminal background checks as well. Some associations will also have restrictions on how many renters can occupy a building; owners should make sure they can rent the unit before proceeding.

Or, in some cases, it's possible to hire a firm to do the landlord work.

In Chicago, a new business was created to manage condo owners' property for them, performing such tasks as finding tenants and collecting rents.

The service, CRS, helps the owners of condos converted by American Invsco, said Michael Zink, one of CRS' developers. Its success is prompting it to expand.

In some situations, condo owners who use CRS are guaranteed a rent check every month -- even if the unit is unoccupied, he said. CRS' cut is a 10% commission based on the lease value from the rental transaction. If the condo owner chooses its rental guarantee program, CRS is paid a fee instead, Zink said.

"At this point in the market, what we really are is more of a safety valve or a way for people to weather the current situation," Zink said. "We can mitigate loss in this period of recovery."

WCI Finally Shows Weakness

As I've posted several times before, I'm bearish on a stock WCI.

Today it finally showed some weakness and was down over 3% on a day when the Dow and Nasdaq were up. Hopefully it'll continue its downward trend and I can make some money on my puts. Some of the Canadian Royalty Trusts that I picked up last week were up today too. Natural Gas is back above $6/MCF which bodes well for their dividends.

Happy Friday Everyone!

Bank of America Announces Free Online Trading

According to Bloomberg.com
"Bank of America Corp., seeking to attract new clients, offered free online stock trades to customers with accounts of at least $25,000, sending shares of discount brokers lower.

The second-largest U.S. bank said customers in New York, Boston and other cities in the northeast U.S. will get 30 free trades a month so long as they maintain the minimum balance in any combination of accounts. Such trades usually cost $5 to $10, meaning customers may save as much as $3,600 a year. Bank of America said the program, which is effective immediately, will be extended nationwide over the next few months."

Further Update To Prosper

As a further update to my previous update, I deposited some money into my Prosper account.

Unfortunately an electronic ACH transfer takes about 7-8 days before it shows in your account. Sounds like someone's enjoying a free ride on my money yet again.

Greenspan Blames Berlin Wall for Housing Price Boom

The great boom in US house prices that abruptly petered out in recent months was caused by increased global integration, not loose monetary policy, Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, has claimed.

"I don't think that the boom came from a 1 per cent Fed funds rate or from the Fed's easing. It came from the collapse of the Berlin Wall," Mr Greenspan told a private audience in Canada on Friday.

You can read the rest of it on MSNBC's site.

YEAH RIGHT! The article also says that he think the worst of the he housing correction may already be over. I don't see how this is possible, seeing as the price correction has barely begun. Real Estate is a slow trend. Once it picks a direction, it normally sticks to it for several years. Once its heading down, prices should over-correct to the point of being ridiculously cheap.

Tips To Happy

Money doesn't supposedly buy happiness, but I'd rather be rich and miserable then poor and miserable!!!! Anyway, according to Jonathan Clemens at WSJ here are Nine Tips for Investing in Happiness.

• 1 Make time for friends. According to a 2006 report by the Pew Research Center in Washington, 43% of married people say they are "very happy," versus 24% for those who aren't.

"Married people spend less time alone," notes David Schkade, a management professor at the University of California at San Diego. "There are parts of your brain that are stimulated by the presence of other people. You're more active and energetic and engaged."

For the same reason, seeing good friends on a regular basis can also bolster happiness.

• 2 Forget the pay raise. While regularly hitting the town with friends will likely increase your happiness, you probably won't get the same boost from spending hours at the mall.

True, you are initially thrilled when you buy that new dress or that flat-screen television. But the thrill quickly fades and you start hankering after something else.

The same thing happens when you get a pay raise. Soon enough, you are taking the extra money for granted and you're feeling dissatisfied again.

• 3 Don't trade up. Research indicates that, once folks achieve a fairly basic standard of living, it takes a lot of additional money to bring about even a small increase in reported happiness.

Yet your income and wealth could still loom large -- if you start comparing yourself with those around you. For instance, if you moved to a neighborhood you can barely afford, you would likely be disgruntled.

The reason: You will be surrounded by wealthy families, and that will be a constant reminder of your relative financial standing.

"If you can look out your window and see neighbors with lower incomes, you'll be happier," Prof. Oswald says. "People are very keen to move into the elite neighborhoods. They don't realize that they won't be as happy as they expect. That's the curse of being human."

• 4 Keep your commute short. Moving into a ritzy neighborhood would be even more harmful to your happiness if it means a longer commute.

• 5 Count your blessings. Your pleasure from your new house and your latest pay raise may subside. But you may be able to revive some of the good feelings by taking a few minutes to count your blessings.

Remember how wealthy neighbors can make you feel poor? What matters is what you focus on. Instead of obsessing over your neighbors' riches, try focusing on the riches you have -- and that will likely make you feel happier.

• 6 Enjoy a good meal. In surveys, eating ranks as one of our favorite pastimes.

• 7 Challenge yourself. Leisure is more pleasurable than work. But you should also think about how you spend your leisure time.

After a long day at the office, you might be inclined to stagger home and collapse in front of your new flat-screen television. But in fact, the research suggests you'll be happier if you are more active.

• 8 Volunteer. If you want to help yourself, try helping others -- by engaging in charitable activities.

• 9 Give it time. Surveys have found that reported happiness tends to be U-shaped through life, with folks becoming increasingly grumpy as they approach their 40s and then recovering from there.

Maybe our happiness gradually declines as we fail to fulfill our youthful ambitions, only to revive once we accept our lot in life. Alternatively, maybe this midlife unhappiness reflects the time pressures faced by those in their 40s, as they juggle work and family.

But whatever the reason, you are likely to grow happier as you grow older.
Maybe growing senile has something to do with that!

North Korea's Nuclear Testing Causes Earthquake

North Korea actually performed nuclear tests over the weekend resulting in a 4.2 magnitude earthquake.

Lets see if this shakes the stock markets and causes a spike in gold prices.

Oil is over $60 per barrel again. I filed gas this weekend for $2.30/gallon. Haven't seen these prices for nearly 2 years! I'm currently reading a very good book on how oil prices affect the stock market and the economy in general. Its called The Oil Factor: Protect Yourself and Profit from the Coming Energy Crisis by Stephen Leeb.

Its very interesting and I highly recommend it.

How To Quit Smoking

One of my coworkers decided to quit smoking almost a year ago. One day he work up and realized he'd spent around $12,000 on smoking over the past 10 years and had nothing to show for it [except filthy lungs!].

He decided to quit smoking and spend the $12,000 on something more tangible. Since he was in the market for a new car, he spent $12k more than he originally budgeted and got himself a very fancy set of wheels. Since that day he hasn't smoked a single cigarette and has actually started going to the gym everyday.

Of course I didn't feel like telling him that he should've calculated the present value of $12,000 over a 10 year period and spent only that much. But nevermind, he succeeded in quitting smoking and I guess thats priceless!

Moody Downgrades WCI

The following is a press release from Moody's Investors Service:

Moody's Lowers Ratings Of Wci Communities; Outlook
Negative

Approximately $650 Million of Debt Securities Affected

New York, October 06, 2006 -- Moody's lowered the ratings of WCI Communities, Inc. ("WCI"), including its corporate family rating to Ba3 from Ba2 and the ratings on its senior subordinated notes to B1 from Ba3. This concludes the review that was commenced on July 24, 2006. The ratings outlook is negative.

Lots of reasons why ....
Followed by the conclusion

Going forward, the ratings could be reduced again if the company were unwilling or unable to reduce debt leverage at year end to the mid-to-high 50% range, if earnings turned sharply negative, or if covenant compliance became problematic. The ratings outlook could stabilize if the company were to place greater emphasis on building liquidity and reducing outstanding debt, were to stay profitable in the coming quarters, and were able to meet its debt covenant tests with some headroom.

The following ratings were affected:

Corporate family rating changed to Ba3 from Ba2

Probability of default rating changed to Ba3 from Ba2

Senior sub debt ratings changed to B1 from Ba3

LGD (Loss-given-default) assessment and rate on the
senior sub debt unchanged at LGD5, 81%.

You guys know I'm negative on this stock through my previous posts & entertaining outlook on analysts covering WCI.

Now I'm not one to make merry of one's misfortune, but I'll definitely try and make a buck off it!

Calm Before The Storm?

In the past few weeks there's been some pretty spectacular economic news. Oil and Gas prices have sunk to 2 years lows. Gold prices are down. The Dollar has seen recent strength. It seems interest rates might start to drop next year. CPI is projected to drop. The stock market is up. And now the Jobs report came in ok.

Everything is just peachy!!!!

Seems a little too perfect! I've heard rumors that our government is manipulating everything and shortly things will return to the way they really are. I have no clue whether this is true or not but if anyone else has a better explanation, I'd love to hear.

Even a wacky conspiracy theory would do too!

Update On Prosper

I had a previous post about Prosper.com where I was planning on borrowing some money for investing.

However I decided against it and now I'm thinking I'll lend some money out instead. If I lend money out at 10% and 10% of the borrowers default, I should still break even. There are several people asking for money who have stellar credit. If you like a bit of risk, you can get a higher rate. Lets see how it works out.

Here's an interesting link Lenders on Prosper

And if any of you would like to share your Prosper experiences, here's a great place to do so.

WCI Warns On 3rd Quarter Profits

I've been buying long-term puts on a Florida condo & home builder called WCI and ever since then the stock has been up 20%. Finally after about 3 weeks they've warned the 3rd Quarter profits will not meet expectations. Hopefully the stock won't bounce on this news!!!
the homebuilder was hit by a larger-than-expected spate of defaults. About 80 homes valued at $48 million failed to close during the quarter.

WCI also raised its tower default rate to 4%, about double its usual average, after experiencing higher-than-normal defaults at one of its towers in northwest Florida.

New orders for homes and condos are projected to plummet 80% below the total reported in the same quarter a year ago. The 60%-to-65% drop "in the value and number of traditional home new orders" reflects the summer sales slump compared to the 40.5% to 43.5% year-over-year new order shortfall from the second quarter of this year.
Despite this poor performance and probable industry-wide decline the CEO sounded very optimistic.
"With the current slowdown in demand, we believe we own sufficient land to support our operations through the foreseeable future. We have concluded that it is more prudent at this juncture to apply our cash flow from operations primarily towards debt reduction and stock repurchases," Starkey added.

You're bleeding cash, suffering losses and you "claim" you're going to buy back stock. Yeah right, I'll believe it when I see it! Especially since insiders have been selling millions of dollars worth of stock in the past 12 months.

And their SEC fillings show that their stock repurchase program is more of an option speculation.
In connection with its previously announced common stock repurchase program, WCI Communities, Inc. (the "Company") entered into an agreement with Citibank, N.A. on September 15, 2006 pursuant to which the Company may enter into a series of capped one-year call option transactions with Citibank, N.A. ("Citibank") with respect to up to 5,000,000 shares of its common stock. The Company has agreed to pay Citibank. approximately $25 million if the capped call option contracts are established for the entire 5,000,000 shares. Any option payment will be accounted for as a reduction to shareholders' equity.


Sounds like one bad move after another.

Always Have Multiple Streams of Income

One of my friends quit his job to play online poker about 2 years ago. He was doing exceptionally well, quadrupling his salary through a few hours of poker playing. All was well until a few weeks ago when online poker was banned. All of a sudden he found himself out of work!

As Robert Kiyosaki says, always have multiple streams of income [or was it that huckster Bob Allen???]. The same thing could happen to almost anyone in any profession. You could wake up one morning to find some stupid legislation has taken away your income.

Ok, maybe its not the same thing, but if you depend on any one source of income there's a risk that you should try to mitigate.

Buying Coins On Ebay

As most of you know, I've been buying a lot of Gold and Silver coins on Ebay. I recently won a bid for a British half-sovereign. Don't know why, but I didn't realize that it was a half-sovereign until AFTER I had paid for it via Paypal.

I like to collect the regular sovereigns which are quite small to begain with [around the size of a nickel] so the half-sovereigns must be really tiny. Anyway, I sent the seller a email requesting him to cancel the sale and refund my money. Surprizingly he agreed and he didn't even take me up on my offer to rebate him the listing fees [since it was my mistake].

So far my experience of buying coins on ebay has been extremely positive. But as usual, you need to be careful and make sure you don't over pay for sometime. It nearly happened to me last week, where I overbid for something. Luckily someone else beat my bid later on and saved me!!!! [It wasn't a big amount, but why overpay when you can get a deal?] In another post, I'll go over my favorite coins to buy.

Competition Announcement

Although Amazon's affiliate program is a bust, Linkworth has been working out nicely for me. Well enough to pay for some real hosting and some nice forum software. So I've set up a forum at The Weekend Investor.

You can read about why I set it up.

Now I'm faced with the chicken and egg problem. I can't drive traffic there unless there are already posts, and I can't get a lot of posts without any traffic. [unless of course, I spend the next few months writing ficticious posts and answering them, which I'm sure some people have done in the past].

So I've come up with a absolutely marvelous marketing strategy. Within the next 30 days, anyone who registers and makes a post will be eligible for a $50 gift card from Amazon.com. Each post counts as another entry, so the more you post the greater your chances of winning.

There's also a Classifieds forum to advertise any real estate or coins or investment books you might want to sell. Check it out and let me know what you think.

Any comments or suggestions about this strategy?


And does anyone have any other marketing ideas that are cheaper? ;-)

Amazon Affiliate Program Sucks

Adventures in Money Making is over a year old now!!!! Since the beginning,
I have been a member of the Amazon affiliate program. Initially it was pretty good. I made around $20 a month, enough to buy a book every month.

Since July however, its dropped off considerably. I've made $3.25 in the past 3 months. While I wasn't expecting to make much money off this anyway, making around a buck a month is pretty worthless. I found out that Amazon dropped the cookie lifespan from 30 days to just 1. Which means if you don't make a purchase immediately, I won't get credit. Also considering the fact that Amazon only paid around 4% commissions to begin with, it wasn't ever going to be a big money maker for me anyway.

Since most small-time bloggers won't be making any money off Amazon's affiliate program, I wonder how this will affect their sales?? Probably won't make much of difference to them.