Bond Prices Spike

I entered a paired trade in February where I went long short-term corporate bonds and shorted long-term government bonds. This has been doing pretty well so far. Over the past two days however, Treasuries have spiked. Ouch! Check out this interesting article about treasury prices in the latest issue of Barrons.

Treasury Yields Leap to Fair Value
By RANDALL W. FORSYTH

THIS HAS BEEN THE WORST TREASURY bond market ever, at least by some measures. Yet, the reasons aren't what you hear from the Howard Beale-style rants from Chicago futures pits.

While there are legitimate reasons for concern about the Treasury's trillion-dollar borrowing needs, the reluctance of creditor nations to accommodate them and the Federal Reserve's money printing, the recent back-up in yields largely reflects other, less fundamental reasons.

From a hair over 2% at the beginning of the year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield surged to a high of 3.70% Wednesday. And the 30-year long bond vaulted more than two full percentage points from their December lows to 4.63% Wednesday.

That doesn't sound like much except to bond geeks, but in price terms, the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond exchange-traded fund (ticker: TLT) lost 25% of its value over that time. That was nearly as big as the plunge in Dow Jones Industrial Average from the turn of the year to its early March lows.

What's extraordinary is that this jump in long-term bond yields came as the Fed pinned its federal-funds rate target at close to zero. Other back-ups in bond yields came when the market anticipated future hikes in the overnight rate, but the Fed has made it clear it will hold its funds rate target at virtually nil for as long as it takes to jump-start the economy.

Moreover, on March 18, the central bank said it would buy an additional $1 trillion of U.S. agency debt, agency mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries to push longer-term rates down to lower borrowing costs, in particular on mortgages.

That clearly hasn't happened; just the opposite. The Treasury yield curve (typically described as the difference between the two- and 10-year note) steepened to a record 2.77 percentage points Wednesday, according to Stone & McCarthy Research Associates.

Part of the back-up reflects the low absolute level of rates earlier this year. Indeed, 10-year Treasury notes yielding only 2% -- as they were around the turn of the year—were attractive only relative to other assets that were collapsing under fear of an economic apocalypse.

With disaster averted and the sighting of the so-called green shoots of growth, stocks had a bungee-jump rebound from their previous nosedive. And low-yielding Treasury notes, which were clutched as life preservers in the storm, were cast off.

But, contends Lacy Hunt, chief economist of Hoisington Investment Management, an Austin, Texas, manager of $4 billion in assets, "The sharp rise in Treasury yields is not a result of an economic recovery. That occurs when income, production, employment and sales, simultaneously, turn higher. Presently, these indicators merely show a lessened rate of decline."

Nor can the burgeoning Treasury borrowing needs fully account for the rise in yield. The ratio of government debt to gross domestic product showed massive increases in the U.S. during the 1930s and 1940s and in Japan since the 1990s, yet yields continued to decline. Indeed, Hunt argues, the shift in productive resources to the government sector from the private sector doesn't stimulate but stymies economic growth.

Finally, the Fed's expansion of its balance sheet doesn't translate into monetary stimulus if the liquidity merely increases excess reserves in the banking system or increases sterile holdings of money balances. Bank credit continues to contract sharply, Hunt points out.

So, what's to account for the sharp rise in Treasury bond yields? Blame it on the intricacies of the mortgage market.

There's a reason that Wall Street hired "rocket scientists" with math PhDs to analyze mortgages. The ability of homeowners to pay off home loans with little or no penalty makes them devilishly difficult to figure out, unlike bonds that commit the borrower to a fixed repayment schedule. Obviously, homeowners will repay or refinance when it's most advantageous for them, which is the worst time for investors in mortgages.

To offset this problem, they hedge with noncallable Treasuries -- buying when they brace for a wave of refinancings and selling when rates rise. Refinancings leave investors with short-term securities when rates fall—exactly what they don't want. Conversely, rising rates encourage homeowners to hang onto their low-cost loans, resulting in the lengthening of the maturity for investors -- again, the last thing they want..

While mortgage investors previously had bought non-callable Treasuries to offset the risk of their mortgages, mortgage investors have unwound that hedge, selling their Treasuries.

This sounds like so much inside baseball but it amounts to huge sums. According to an estimate by mortgage-securities-market veteran Alan Boyce, writing for Drobny Global Advisors, these hedge sales are equivalent to issuance of $1.1 trillion (with a "T") of 10-year Treasury notes, compared to expected sales of $250 billion of that maturity this year.

Clearly, Treasuries were in a bubble when they yielded just 2% for 10 years. Technical factors have nearly doubled that yield from the lows, but not fundamentals -- which still reflect a recessionary economy and debt deflation. As a result, Treasuries are back to fair value for these conditions.

Time To Short US Treasuries?

Barrons thinks that the yields US Treasuries are too low and are due to bounce this year, causing a major correction in the bond prices.

Amongst the reasons cited are strong gold prices:

One sign of trouble for Treasuries is the resilient price of gold, which has risen $150 an ounce since late October, to $880 an ounce, despite weakness in most commodity prices. Investors rightly see gold as an appealing alternative to low-yielding Treasuries and virtually nonexistent yields on short-term debt as the government cranks up its printing presses. Gold was up $45 an ounce last year, while oil was down 50%. Another worrisome indicator: The dollar has weakened recently, losing 10% of its value against the euro in the past month.

Chief investment officer at PIMPCO advised to get out of treasuries, stating that they're very expensive and offer no margin of safety.



Check out this post to see a way to profit from a potential decline in Treasuries.

Who's To Blame For AIG's Failure?

Here's an interesting synopsis about why AIG failed so quickly.

When Lehman Brothers still existed, the bank had around $150 billion in debt. And the Securities and Exchange Commission let hedge funds and other investment vehicles take $365 billion of insurance out on that debt through the use of credit default swaps. It was like buying life insurance on someone you knew was going to die soon.

Now the sellers of these swaps are on the hook for $365 billion. And guess who sold most of the Lehman swaps? AIG.

When the history of this debacle is finally written, AIG will be at the center of the story. AIG sold insurance on hundreds of billions of dollars of assets, with almost no collateral. It, along with Fannie and Freddie, was the primary reason so much credit was created and the primary reason so much credit has been destroyed.

So where was AIG's risk management? Isn't that insurance companies do, manage risk?

Are Hedge Funds Worth It?

Hedge funds have been receiving a bad rep over the past few years. Funds like those of Bear Sterns lost Billions in investor capital by making bad, overleveraged bets. And they charge a whopping 2% front-end load and 20% of the profits. Compared to many other well performing funds, this is outrageously high.

Is this enormous fee worth it? Here's a very interesting email I received today:

This could be the worst hedge fund in the world... Jonathan Wood, a former UBS trader, founded hedge fund SRM Global Master Fund two years ago. Now he's bust. Wood took positions in Bear Stearns, the defunct investment bank; Countrywide Financial, the posterboy of the mortgage debacle; and Northern Rock, the U.K. bank that experienced a run on its assets.

SRM Global Master Fund raised $3 billion in 2006 and is down 85% through July. Investors agreed to a five-year lockup, so they haven't been able to redeem. See what you get for "2 and 20"?

Makes the -15% year to date return of the US stock market look pretty stellar in comparison! I guess sometimes simpler investments are better!

How Does Your 401k Compare?

I have a 401k from a previous employer. With only a dozen mutual funds to choose from, it doesn't have very many investment choices. I've done the best I can from these choices and have selected 8 of them, with 75% of my 401k invested in just 3 funds. And I've managed to eke out a very respectable 17.4% for the first 3 quarters of the year.



On the flip side, my 401k with my current employer has about 3 dozen options. However, there's less diversification amongst them than with the previous employer! It lacks a REIT fund (not that I'd invest in it, since I'm heavily invested in Real estate on my own), a health care fund, and a technology fund.

Instead, some moron set it up with 4 bond funds, 2 small-cap broad market funds, 2 small-mid cap value funds, 2 small-mid cap blend funds, 4 mid-large cap equity funds, 4 mid-large cap value funds, 3 international funds, and so on.

So despite the wide selection of funds, they're less diverse than the 401k with only 12 options. Instead of choosing the fund with the least management fees, the lazy (or maybe inept?) administrator just included 3 or 4 similar funds so the participant can make his own decisions.

And despite having so many options, I only managed to make 14.05% in the current 401k for the same time period, which is basically a reflection of the broad market indices minus the management fees.

Sometimes fewer, more well-thought out options are better!

New Coin Purchase

I recently mentioned that I made $500 dollars last month from online advertising. Rather than use that money to expand or improve my lifestyle (also knows as "buying crap"), I decided to invest it in something that has intrinsic value.

The US Dollar has losing value over the past 2 years. Just today the Dollar index dropped to its lowest recorded value of 77 and I think its going to keep on dropping. Typically precious metals like Gold, Silver and Platinum do well in times of a weak currecny.

Why do I think the Dollar will continue to weaken?
Because the economy sucks and is being manipulated in wierd ways. To quote someone quoting the late Dr. Richebacher, a smart and wealthy economist,

"All this emphasis on statistics and calculations.," he went on, rapping his silver-handled cane on the table for emphasis, "without a proper theory, it is all nonsense. And your economists seem to have no theory at all.they just think they can manipulate the system in order to get whatever outcome they want. They think economic growth comes from consumer spending and that they can control consumer spending by adjusting lending rates. It is unbelievable that anyone takes this seriously. It is capital formation that really matters. A rich society is one with a great stock of capital. One that builds capital and puts it to work to create more capital. A rich society is not one where people consume. Just the opposite. It is not what is consumed that creates wealth; it is what is NOT consumed. Yet, all the Anglo-Saxons focus on motivating consumers to consume. And now they are consuming more than they make. I tell you, in 70 years of studying economics, I have never seen such nonsense."

And in order to "save the economy" the FED is going to cut the interest rates, which will increase inflation and weaken the dollar. Even the Governor of the Bank of England, Gov. King said yesterday that "If central banks cut interest rates in the current environment, they run the moral risk of rekindling speculative risk-seeking, i.e. supporting the very behavior that caused the current market crisis, namely the underestimation of risk."

A country's currency is an indicator of its economy. If the country has a good balance sheet, positive flow of funds, a good business plan, strong leadership the currency will be strong. Right now the US has none of those qualities.

Anyway, I spent the $500 on some silver coins. Regular readers already know I like buying gold and silver coins. I bought about a dozen each of the perth mint silver tigers, 1920s Peace silver dollars & 2007 silver eagles. They're beautiful coins, make good gifts and hopefully will continue to appreciate as the Dollar keeps losing value.

Become a Better Investor

The Orlando Sentinel has sad story about condo flippers in Miami. They put down $100,000 on a pre-construction condo and now either they lose their deposit or they close on a $585,000 1 bedroom condo thats worth less than $500,000.

The sad part is that people fall for these get-rich quick schemes in every cycle. It happened in Miami during the last boom. It happened in the stock market in 2000. Its been happening regularly for over 400 years in every country. If these flippers had only read Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, they would've realised that they're not geniuses, only the last fools to be left holding the bag.

Unfortunately, I was once such a fool. Taken in by the stock market in 1999 and fooled in 2000. Luckily I learnt my lesson early in life when I had little to risk and many years to implement my new found wisdom. I feel sorry for those that learnt this lesson late in life like the retirees of Enron. Life isn't fair.

But that doesn't mean you do not do your homework. Your job as an investor is to know your investment inside and out. But also you need to understand the psychology of investing. Human psychology is the common uniting thread across all investment sectors. If it weren't for human intervention, stock prices would move only 4 times a year - after quarterly earnings are released.

Read all you can about the economy, the stock market and the world in general. Eventually you will become a better investor.

Related Readings:
1. Books that broaden your mind

Yield On 10 Year TBill Keeps On Dropping

Even though the past few sessions in the stock market have been rather choppy, the yield on the 10 year treasury has steadily dropped over the past several weeks.



Ever since the subprime mortgage issue led to a global liquidity crunch and subsequent stock market correction, the yield has been steadily dropping. This means that large institutions have been selling equities and moving money into safe US treasuries. It doesn't matter if they get only 4.5% (as of today's closing price), but at least they know they'll get the principle back.

There seems to be a repricing of risk in the market. Any stock that is deemed to be risky has dropped in the past 6 weeks.

On the other hand, safe stocks like Warren Buffett's Bershire Hathaway (BRK) has been rewarded and its stock price is up nearly 10%.

Lets see how long this flight to safety continues. If you have the courage to be greedy when other are fearful, you can make a lot of money.

Happy Investing!

How The Carry Trade Really Works

Here's a really, really good video on how the carry trade works and what implications it has on global asset prices and the global financial stability.




I think the carry trade will have to reverse at some point in the near future. Trees do not grow to the skies and financial excesses do not last forever. When the average man on the street with no financial education starts talking or investing in a particular sector, it usually marks the end of that run. (In 2000 I overheard my hair-dresser talking about internet stocks - I should've sold then. In early 2005, I overheard some guys at the movie theater talking about getting into the local real estate market - I sold then and I'm glad I did!)

With Japanese housewives partaking in the carry-trade now, I think its safe to say that we're pretty close to the end of the cycle of cheap, easy money. I sold some USD and bought Yen and I've also invested some money in Japanese investments (a REIT and a stock ETF).

Related Posts:

Are Jim Cramer's Stock Picks Worthless?

According to a recent article by Barron's Magazine title The Cramer Effect (& Defect), readers who follow Jim Cramer's stock picks from his show are more than likely to lose money in the long run.

We also looked at a database of Cramer's Mad Money picks maintained by his Website, TheStreet.com. It covers only the past six months, but includes an astounding 3,458 stocks — Buys mainly, punctuated by some Sells. These picks were flat to down in relation to the market. Count commissions and you would have been much better off in an index fund that simply tracks the market.

When we asked Cramer and CNBC for their own records of Mad Money's stock-picking performance, they had more excuses than a Tour de France cyclist dodging a blood test. They complained that the list from YourMoneyWatch.com contained some stocks from the program's "Lightning Round," in which Cramer gives a quick analysis and a buy or sell decision on stocks phoned in live by viewers. These, they argued, shouldn't count in our tally.

CNBC officials also said that viewers should buy Cramer's picks a week after they're aired. They said that the show is mainly educational, and not just about stock-picking. In the end, they said we should focus only on the tiny universe of stock selections — about 12 a week — that Cramer researches the most. And we should do it only for the issues picked this year. CNBC analyzed these stocks, and said that if held for one month, they beat the S&P by 0.8%, or 1.7% after two months. They offered no results for the year-to-date.

It turns out that CNBC did its analysis incorrectly, and that the stocks beat the S&P by 0.4% in one month and 1.2% over two months. CNBC measured the stocks' performance against the average performance of the S&P year-to-date, instead of against the performance of the S&P from the date of each stock pick. Also, it included more than 100 recently recommended stocks that weren't held for the full one- or two-month holding period that CNBC claimed.

More important, the stocks fell short of the S&P by a statistically significant 2.2% through last week.

Our question is: How are viewers supposed to know that they should pay attention only to this subset of stock picks each week and ignore the thousands of others that Cramer makes on his show?

Then there's the day-after-pop phenomenon. Our analysis of Cramer's picks over the past two years, from YourMoneyWatch.com, showed that, on average, the stocks jumped 2% the day after he mentioned them. From there, they usually moved sideways or down for the following 30 trading days (see chart). This offered an opportunity to make money — 5% to 30% a year — by selling Cramer's selections short.

Cramer agrees that there is a shorting opportunity in the temporary effect he has on stocks — a trade that he'd jump on if he still were at a hedge fund. "If you short the bump, you will do well," he said last week. "I've said it on the show many times."

I really don't think people should be taking stock tips from a guy who has about a minute to analyze the stocks on his show. He may be a really smart guy but how can he properly evaluate a stock in the short time period he has?

I hope there aren't too many people who base their stock investing solely based on his recommendations. But if they're that ignorant or lazy, I guess they get what they deserve!

How To Sell a $14 Book For $2,500

Previously, I had mentioned a $2,500 book by Monhish Pabrai called Mosaics:Perspectives on Investing and how I was hoping I could find my own signed copy to hawk on Amazon.

Well, I did find it and after jumping through several hoops I was finally approved as a seller on Amazon.com. (Don't know what the issue was, just some technical difficulties on their end).

Not only did I find a signed copy, I also happened to have an unsigned copy too!

I'm selling the autographed copy for $2,395 (don't want to be too greedy!). Here's the link on Amazon.com. If anyone's interested, contact me directly and I'll let it go for $2,200 with free FEDEX shipping.

I'm not sure what sort of people buy these kind of books. But I know they exist. Someone spent $395 and bought the unsigned edition a few days ago. I know that for a fact because I got a $23 commission from Amazon on the sale of that book(thanks whoever you are!).

I just read Pabrai's latest book, The Dhandho Investor: The Low - Risk Value Method to High Returns and its really very, very good. I'll write a review on it shortly.

And yeah, the title of this post is a bit misleading. ;-)

Beware The Chinese Stock Market

On the front page of today’s South China Morning Post, there’s a quote from Li Ka-shing, Asia’s richest man.

As a Chinese, I am worried about the mainland stock market. History shows that any phenomenon whereby shares are priced at 50 to 60 times forward earnings will end in a disaster. And any economic fluctuation in the mainland will absolutely hit Hong Kong.

In a sharply volatile stock market, small investors will be the victims in the end.

If any of you own China Funds it might be a good idea to lighten up on them now. Li Ka-shing didn't get to be Asia richest person by being dumb!

Here's a comparison between the Shanghai Stock Market Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
If this doesn't look bubblicious, I don't know what does!



Note: There's a difference between the Shanghai Mainland stock market and the Hong Kong Stock Market. The Shanghai Stock Market is where the locals and Jim Rogers trade. The big multi-national companies like PTR trade on the Hong Kong Market which hasn't had such a speculative run-up.

Also of interest is this note from the China Fund (CHN), dated April 30th 2007.

Our returns in April came mostly from the A-share market, which is building up a good head of steam. The 'B word' is increasingly appearing in commentaries on the market, but as veterans of the late-80s bubble in Japan, when any stock under 30X was considered dirt cheap, we think this bubble will inflate still further. There have been disparaging comments about panic buying by local investors, now opening stock accounts at the rate of about 200,000 per day. We think they are reacting perfectly rationally to extremely high earnings growth (34% in 2006, accelerating in the first quarter of 2007) and negative real interest rates (Chinese banks only pay 2.2% after tax on one-year deposits, but the latest official inflation number was 3.3%). Ahead of the 17th party congress in October, it seems unlikely that Chinese politicians will make the 'courageous' decisions necessary to stop the market (big increases in interest and exchange rates), so they will continue to fiddle in vain with increasing equity supply and administrative guidance.

Hmmm....200,000 illiterate poor farmers/workers lining up to open a brokerage account doesn't look like a market top? ok, so they don't believe that the market's over-valued. But then why are they acting like it is? Here's a quote from a few paragraphs later.

The Fund is 93.5% invested with holdings in 65 companies. In April we began a big switch, selling US$19 million of A-shares to cut the Fund’s weighting there to 24.1%, whilst buying a net US$46m of the laggard, low-priced Taiwan market to lift the Fund’s exposure there to 29.4%. We believe that the A-share market has further to run, but Taiwan looks better when risk is balanced against potential reward. The NT dollar has also recently depreciated against the weak US dollar, never mind the mighty renminbi.

In addition to the broad-based buying of Taiwan favourites (Fu Hwa Financial, Formosa Petrochemical, Wah Lee, Synnex, Lien Hwa, Wistron Neweb and Taiwan Secom) the Fund received miniscule allocations to two hot Hong Kong IPOs, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding and China Molybdenum.

Ah, so they want to buy the somewhat undervalued Taiwan stock market and the Hong Kong Market instead of mainland China! Atleast they're not as stupid as you pretend to be!

Disclaimer: I own a miniscule amount of PetroChina (PTR) in my Roth. PTR is traded on the HK stock exchange. I'm not selling it but I'm not actively encouraging you to buy it or anything else, except maybe gold ;-)

Kiyosaki's Words of Wisdom

There is a saying that goes, "When your picture appears on the cover of Time Magazine, your career is over." If you have access to the June 13, 2005 issue of Time Magazine, you will see a picture of a man hugging his home. The title and subtitle say, "HOME SWEET HOME: Why we're going gaga over real estate."

There is another saying that goes, "As General Motors goes, so does the U.S." Well, today, both General Motors and Ford have had their corporate bonds downgraded to "junk bond" status.

Rich dad would say, "As one party ends, another begins." This real estate bubble has made many people very, very, rich. I hope it has made you rich. It has certainly made Kim and I very, very rich. But in my opinion, this party is over... so see you at the next party.

Despite his being widely disliked, I think Kiyoski makes some excellent points. The real estate boom is over (especially in places like California and Florida). You have to blind and deaf (or maybe just incredibly naive) to think otherwise.

The US government is essentially bankrupt. It has trillions of dollars worth of debt on the books. Not a good sign.

But there's always a bull market somewhere. If you keep your eyes and ears open, you'll always make money. You just need to get there before everyone else. As Milton Keynes once said, "The art of investing is anticipating the anticipations of others!".

PS: Kiyosaki was quoted from an August 2005 article which you can read here.

Recession Proof Living

Here's a somewhat decent article on ways to recession-proof your life.

Most of it is common sense. It can be summed up rather simply. Don't over-spend, over-leverage, over-invest or over-work. Look for side-income opportunities and move if the local economy sucks.

Another aspect is what to invest in. Wealth Building Lessons has a good article on current investment opportunities that would also make good investments during a recession.

Smart money recommends investing in bonds during a recession.

Meanwhile Eric Haller suggests Prisons are the ultimate recession investment.

Maybe Rick Hilton can dream of an Hilton chain of prisons specially catered to the unruly offspring of the rich and famous. He can hire Paris Hilton as consultant on the project, now that she'll have the relevant work experience!. Yet another arrow in the quiver for "accomplished" actress, singer, writer, night club owner(well sort of), fashion designer and drunk driver!

Profiting From Investment News

I read an email today that mentioned China (who is already the planet’s largest coal consumer) claims it will need an extra 80 million tons by next January. India is also estimated to need an extra 120 million tons, and most other Asian countries are expected to increase demand by 7%.

According to Kevin Kerr, “Coal prices are going much higher than I thought. Keep an eye on those diesel prices too, they are already creeping up. These two markets are going to surge this summer, absolutely.”

Since I like to take advantage of investment opportunities whenever I come across them, I placed an order to sell PUT option contracts on James River Coal Company (JRCC). Its essentially a long position on the companies stock, which has nicely trended up 50% in the past several months.

If the order is executed tomorrow (the order was placed after hours) I get a net credit of $195/contract. By september, if the stock trades above $8.05, I'll have made a profit. My maximum profit is $195/contract and it occurs at stock prices over $10.00. If the stock drops below $8.05 I will either have to buy it or sell my option before expiration date at a loss. But I'm bullish on the stock so the loss would be smaller than actually buying the stock outright.

If the stock stays at the same $9.50 price, I'll still make $145/contract at expiry. Both my upside and my downside are limited, but I think there's a great chance I'll make more money selling the puts with a lower risk than by buying the stock outright. Plus for each contract instead of putting up nearly $1000, I'm collecting $195 instead. It does use up my margin limits, but it does mean I don't need to pay interest on the amount, since I'm not borrowing any money.

Of course you manage the risk here by not betting the farm. If the stock moves against me and my option moves against me 50% (ie, I'm down $100/contract) I'll close out my position. Since this total draw-down is only 0.33% of my portforlio, it doesn't give me ulcers. And while the total profit is only 0.66% of my total portfolio and isn't exactly an earth-shattering return, its a 2-1 risk-reward scenario that I'm comfortable with.

If the stock goes BK overnight and I lose the max $805 per contract, it still only 2.66% of my portfolio, which is a bearable loss. Remember, risk management will determine whether you succeed or fail in the long term.

Last Chance To Get In On A Zero-Risk Investment

I've been wanting to send in the paperwork for the Everbank Marketsafe Japanese REIT CD for nearly a month. Since I used my Coporation's 401k and Profit Sharing Plan (PSP) to invest, I had to open a business account and fill out extra Trustee paperwork, in addition to supplying a copy of the original 200 page 401k & PSP documentation.

Anyway, I got it all filled out and signed by the co-Trustee (my wife) and fedexed it to Everbank. April 17th is the last date to get in on this investment.

If you think the Yen is going to appreciate against the dollar and Japanese Real Estate is going to appreciate, its worth a gamble. This CD is FDIC insured and has no downside risk! You can read more
about it at Wealth Building Lessons.

Since I'm investing through my PSP, I don't need to worry about taxes. If you want you can invest in a ROTH IRA at Everbank too!

Opened a Roth IRA in 10 Minutes

I've been trying to open a Roth IRA for my wife for 2006 contributions at Zecco for a few weeks now.

Initially I couldn't open their stupid .fdf file. Finally I gave in and updated my adobe acrobat to the latest version in order to open it, filled out the paperwork, printed it all out and asked the wife for a copy of her drivers license.

She didn't have. She's lost it and isn't going to waste time at the DMV until after tax season is over. Bummer, without it Zecco will not open an account. Unfortunately tax season ends on 17th April this year, which is the last date I can make a 2006 contribution.

Total time wasted in this activity has been about 4-5 hours. This involved filling out the online application 3 times, calling customer support and being placed on hold for 30-45 minutes (and then giving up), emailing them, printing out the forms and then shredding them.

Instead I decided to go with TDAmeritrade. I currently have all my accounts with them and they have excellent customer service. They also sent me a free 2 GB Ipod when I asked them!

I went online and in about 10 minutes, the account was setup and funded via ACH.

Zecco may have free stock trades and ETF trades but it has significant drawbacks.
1. There is no customer support.
2. There is no technical support.
3. Too much paperwork to signup.
4. They charge you commissions for Mutual Funds.
TDAmeritrade has a TON of mutual funds that are no commission and no load. They also waive the minimum purchase amounts for most of them too.

I think Zecco is definitely over-rated. Besides that, TDAmeritrade gave me free trades for 45 days and a free copy of Money!

Also check out this post about Ben Stein's Rule of Retirement Investing.

When The Market Crashes

Now that the market dropped like a sack of potatoes, Cramer has some good advice. (Of course hindsight is 20-20, but still its good advice!)

You only have a couple of protections from the whims of a broken system:

1. A company that pays you a dividend that is equal to or better than Treasuries after taxes is a good defense.
2. Or you want a stock that has a valuation so low that you know it's a bargain -- and its management knows it's a bargain (read: it's buying back stock right here).
3. Last chance: a company that is so defensive in nature that even if there's a worldwide slowdown, it will meet expectations regardless: Coke (KO), Pepsi (PEP), Altria (MO), Kellogg (K), General Mills (GIS), Clorox (CLX) and Colgate (CL).

If you don't anything that fits one of those three criteria (I'd rather have two or three per company) you will not be OK for now. That's because we are now going to have people who just say, "Wow this is too crazy, let me out of here!"

But nobody ever made a dime panicking. This time will be no different, but only if you are shrewd about what won't hurt you and what can work in a volatile and down environment.

In India, stocks like Colgate, Johnson & Johnson, Proctor & Gamble and Unilever are called blue-chip stocks that never go out of business because they make stuff everyone needs and uses. Maybe I should stop looking at their prices everyday and finally buy some!

BHP Billington Share Buy Back

BHP bought 1.5 million shares today. They report this on their website. Pretty amazing how much stock they've bought back. The stock buy backs along with their regular dividends and diversified commodity base makes them one of my favorite stocks. Plus the fact that everyone I know isn't harping on about them (like Qualcomm in 1999) makes it even more attractive.

Along with Anglo American (AAUK), these two are great commodity plays. Plus they're both down over 5% this week makes it a good time to jump in. I plan on holding both for a long long time.

As usual, do your own Due Diligence. If you don't know what that means or how to do it, put your money in ING Direct instead!

Today's market rebound was disheartening. Even though my portfolio is down on the whole, my invesrse S&P500 fund was up 7% yesterday. Now I don't know whether I should hold it or bail. On the other hand, if we saw another day like yesterday, I could exit and take my profits! But then gain, everyone else seems to be really happy with the rebound. I guess thats the closest we'll ever get to world peace. I'll take it ;-)

Investment Pimps

Had a meeting today with a group who finds investments. Pretty interesting. Not in a way where you feel you found a good deal, but interesting in the way that you learn something about someone that amazes you.

They basically had some very sketchy deals in several parts of the country and in various different price ranges.[ranging from $75,000 to $28 million]. The deals were
either pre-construction or commercial/land deals. They didn't really have any numbers on any of the deals[except pricing]. They just wanted $25,000 to $3 million assignment fees on most of them.

What amazed me was that though they didn't really understand market cycles or how investing worked, they definitely thought that they were doing the investors a great favor and were demanding pretty steep assignment fees upfront. Most of the deals were marginal at best and some were just terrible. And they were offering me an equivalent amount in "commissions at closing" to pimp them to my investor group.

While there are many agents, who specialize in investments and dealing with investors and provide excellent services, you also need to be wary of investment pimps who will say anything to push a product so long as they get paid they're upfront finders fee, or assignment fee. Dont' get taken in by their "research".

Always do your own Due Diligence!